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Zarb-i-Momin, geo-political opportunities-II

Within the fast changing mosaic of emerging realities in the governing systems of the nations of the world, Pakistan’s geographical position creates opportunities which may not come for many many years in the future. As proud citizens of an independent nation we have suddenly been given the choice of taking the country pell-mell to an honourable and eminent place among the major nations of the world. To that end, Zarb-i-Momin has coincidentally come at an opportune moment, we must grasp boldly at its unstated potential.

The Afghan War was singularly responsible for the rearmament/re-equipping of the Pakistan Armed Forces. Generous US military and economic aid continues to this day. Very correctly, US planners assessed their Pakistan’s geo-political positioning gives it a linchpin status in the region. With Iran after the Shah’s exit, ceasing to be a major western bastion against Russian expansion in the region, Pakistan became a front-line state in the bid to stop further Russian advance into the Indian Ocean.
From the Russian point of view the Afghanistan foray has been debatable from the outset and seems to have been taken by a close knit (and now-discredited) clique within the Politburo probably because of their perceptions that an extremely complicated and contradictory international situation existed in the late 70s. In the face of President Carter’s vacillations, the Middle East became ripe for exploitation. On military grounds, Russian military commanders felt that the delegated force was not large enough and that the presence of alien troops historically tended to unite Afghans, as such their military advice down the line was against the adventure, dutifully they ruthlessly executed orders. Even in their wildest imagination they could not have predicted that the backlash in their own heartland would ultimately shake the foundations of the Soviet socialist empire.

Sometimes small factors can lead to great changes and the penchant of the Russian family unit to honour its war dead complicated matters for an authoritarian regime having to otherwise rule a docile population. Suddenly here was a war that did nothing to glorify the dead or even take cognizance of the veteran living, injured or not. Families all over the Soviet Union who had lost their sons felt dishonoured and demeaned, this resentment became ingrained in the system and the discredited military establishment gradually lost hold in the Politburo, with the passing away of the old guard new opportunities arose. With rise in aspirations, economic hardships became more pronounced and through this turmoil and confusion Gorbachev and his close aides came through to the top, the rest is history, Glasnost and Perestroika included, still unfolding, a domino theory in reverse through Eastern Europe, the bigger they are the harder they fall. To that end, the bearded Afghan guerilla and his 303 Lee Enfield rifle, symbolising the advent of the rebellion, initiated changes in the world systems that he himself can never understand.

When Pakistan took on a superpower many stout hearts amongst us felt that the results would be disastrous for Pakistan, that we had gone too far, bitten off more than we could chew. In the end, the transformation of the guerilla image into the Stinger missile and wireless set-toting combatant has symbolised the sending-off of a superpower packing, setting in motion a chain of events that is even now shaking Eastern Europe’s captive nations from under communist tutelage. To Pakistan’s undying credit, we were not only put to great risk in being an unrelenting front-line state but acted as a safe, continuous conduit for supplies for the Afghan resistance.

The ending of the Iran-Iraq war has opened up other opportunities in the region. As emotions have tended to calm down, relations with western nations becoming better than the low point reached during Imam Khomeini’s life there could be important changes in future alliances. Iran is our neighbour on the western borders and it is imperative that we forge better understanding with it in the months and years ahead. We have had great help from Iran during all previous conflicts with India, a long-drawn out war with India would require an existing infrastructure of road, railways, coastal transportation and logistical concentration areas on the western side of the Indus. There may be economic reasons for developing the Balochistan coastline and hinterland but there are also strategic reasons for which we must give the development of Balochistan our utmost attention. An adjacent friendly Iran provides great depth to us in this context, both for economic and strategic reasons. On the reverse side, Iran would be happy with a similar arrangement during its time of need, a form of strategic consensus.

The results in the Indian elections are extremely satisfying. Rajiv Gandhi has been acting out an imperial India part and had, according to the new PM VP Singh, acquired for India the reputation of being a regional bully, well justified by constant Indian adventure. The Indian Armed Forces have been equipped and armed with the latest in weaponry and state of the art hi-tech equipment at great economic cost — the poverty of India’s teeming masses seem to be believed. With secessionist forces at work in East Punjab (Khalistan), Occupied Kashmir, Nagaland, Bodoland, Mizoram, Gorkhaland, etc. a unique situation exists in this region that India would remain pre-occupied with its own internal problems and thus not interfere in the internal affairs of its neighbouring countries particularly Pakistan.

This is not only good for India’s neighbours it will be good for India. While an unstable India is a sure recipe for regional turmoil, the smooth transition must be commended, whatever reservations one may have about India, its democratic institutions are alive and well. If India did not have predatory instincts it would be the great economic powerhouse for the region, as it is the countries of the region have a unique opportunity to consolidate their freedom and independence, a God-given breathing space.
Our immediate concern is our legitimate interests in Occupied Kashmir and the deteriorating situation in Indian Punjab (Khalistan). In Kashmir the primary factor being the aspirations of the Kashmiri people for freedom, we cannot discount the fact that most of the rivers which keep Pakistan green (and fed) emanate in the Kashmir. As it is, the Indus Basin Treaty is being tested by India with the Wullar Dam which will make a major part of the Punjab into a water-starved area, having cumulatively a greater problem downstream in Sindh. To illustrate a problem, India has made six catchment dams in the rivers feeding Bangladesh. At their own sweet will, India stops water flow during the water season causing extreme drought in parts of North Bangladesh and releases water during the rainy season causing devastating floods. Need one say what could be the possibilities if India’s has its hand on the Wullar stop-cock. This cannot be acceptable to any Pakistani as it represents a vested violation of an accepted international treaty to Pakistan’s detriment.

The Federal Government’s assertion that at its behest India has stopped further construction is welcome. Down south, the Sindh scenario is tailor-made for Indian interference, no doubt Research & Analytical Wing (RAW) has been doing its utmost to exacerbate the anarchical situation. This unwarranted exploitation has been possible because of severe political mistake through the years causing the ethnic Sindhi to feel deprived in his own homeland, force-multiplied in the last decade because of extreme polarisation, results of decade-long martial law. We have to contain the Sindh factor, bring all ethnic groups back into the Pakistan mainstream, the PM being of Sindhi origin is a big help. The first step would be to recognise that the Sindhi has a genuine grievance and go on from there.

For far too long we have deluded ourselves about the Persian Gulf and the Middle East in general. During the last two decades, whereas Saudi Arabian and the Gulf states have been supportive of Pakistan, we have lost our pre-eminent influence among the increasingly cosmopolitan population. Look at the Khaleej Times and Gulf News, staffed mostly by Muslims, Indian, Bangladeshi or Pakistani, the slant is wholly Indian. During the last month, the media in the Gulf gave more coverage to the Indian elections than the Indian media. Whether in business or administration, the major influence is Indian. Across from Gwadar this is much more apparent in Muscat, slightly lesser in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain. While the rulers are definitely pro-Pakistani, the masses are Indian influenced, we have to stop acting like ostriches.

Given the US-Russian rapprochement, western concern about Soviet influence over Middle Eastern oil will ease, leading to reduction of western forces in the area. Into this vacuum, India, with its naval might, two aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, numerous surface naval war craft, etc. can well (and easily) step in. It has shown its rapid deployment capabilities in Sri Lanka and the Maldives. With Rajiv gone, the dreams of a “Roman Empire” (Italian Princess and all) may have taken a back seat, the concept of “Ram Rajya” certainly stays alive because of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Pakistan should never forget that Indian dreams extend up to the Fiji Islands in the Pacific, in the other direction the Gulf is just one Agni missile away.

For the first time in four decades Pakistan is politically and militarily capable of fighting a successful war against India, that is the essential hometruth brought about by Zarb-i-Momin. A decade ago, at the start of Afghan war we were economically and militarily in doldrums, politically we were zilch because of martial law. While sustaining the refugees has been a drain and we have had to pay a terrible price with the advent of the drug and Kalashnikov culture, the Afghan war just hurried things up, these criminal intrusions would still have come. While the last decade was spent in being a front-line state, mostly under martial law, the army’s strong stance for democracy in August 1988 at Gen Zia’s death has meant a political windfall for Pakistan — and an amazing unbelievable turnaround in the image of the Pakistan Army among the masses. The President’s mention of Zarb-i-Momin in his speech to the Joint Session of Parliament evoked enthusiastic bilateral applause, and that is as it should be a national Army having the respect and admiration of the elected representatives across the political spectrum and the masses.
To the North East then we have to look at our legitimate interests in Kashmir. As the Afghan war gets over, the guerilla cadres trained and nurtured by the ISI have a debt of honour to repay. With Occupied Kashmir in such turmoil that the BJP is asking for Presidential rule, the objectives of Operation Gibraltar, as conceived by late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and then Maj. Gen. Akhtar Malik (also deceased), almost a quarter-century ago are now realisable — the uprising genuinely homegrown this time, which was missing the first time around. An insurrection within Kashmir supported by battle tested guerrillas can only succeed.
To the East, we have Indian Punjab in turmoil. Repeatedly the Indians have accused us of supporting Sikhs fighting for an independent Khalistan. Why not give truth to this lie? What are the Indians doing in Sri Lanka? First they armed the LTTE, now they have created the Tamil National Army. What about Bangladesh and the Shanti Bahini operating from Tripura carrying out havoc in once peaceful Chittagong Hill Tracts? India’s interference in Sindh through RAW has been bloody. While we may not actually violate Indian borders ourselves why should we shackle ourselves from providing safe sanctuaries to the Sikhs? An independent Khalistan creates an independent Kashmir by itself automatically, by not helping the Sikhs we are only earning brownie points from the Indians.

To the Southwest lies our future hope. We must develop the Balochistan coastline and hinterland. Economic exploitation of these areas is a must, economically speaking Balochistan is the new frontier for purposeful economic exploitation. As Dubai and Singapore have shown, oil is not the only criterion for rapid progress, cities can exist profitably just by being service-oriented. We must develop Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara on the coastline, Panjgur, Turbat, Khuzdar, Sibi, etc. in the Balochistan hinterland. New infrastructure of roads and railways serving up-country locations must be laid, a regular coastal transportation based on small coastal ships/barges must be created, serving the coastline operating into the Gulf and Iranian ports besides Muscat. While creating employment opportunities, there will be commensurate rapid development of Balochistan Province.

Suddenly we live in a world of hope a charismatic PM with international credibility multiplies that hope into visions of reality. A democratic government has freed our Armed Forces to be the weapon of that hope at a crucial time in history. Coincidental perhaps, but Ms Benazir has thus a unique chance, if she can put her own house in order, shrug off the accusations of corruption the like of which brought down Rajiv, administer well within her known capabilities with the sincerity toward the masses which is manifest in her, we will have the political reserves required to step forward in this world into an era of prosperity and development while being secure in the knowledge that our Armed Forces can meet any threat, indeed act as an instrument of grand design in an era of geo-political opportunities.

To turn dreams into realities, one has to rise above the petty and the mundane and achieve the political and socio-economic results one is capable of.

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