Jobs and the Nation
Two mighty Superpowers confronted each other in a four decades old cold war till a scant year or so ago with enough bang in their arsenals to blow the world up many hundreds of times over. Though the former Soviet Union’s weaponry is still intact for the most part in 12 or so different hands, the only effective Head Honcho left is the USA. As the clear winner of the cold war, George Bush would be expected to be riding high in the esteem of his own electorate. In addition to the demise of the Soviet Union, President Bush had orchestrated the world campaign, barely a year or so ago, to oust Iraq from Kuwait. His spectacular successes in foreign policy initiatives have been dwarfed by the spectre of continuing recession, jobs are more important to the US public than the fate of Gorbachev, Yeltsin or Saddam Hussain. The same factor of economics that was primarily responsible for consigning the Soviet Union to oblivion is now threatening to erode his candidacy for a Second Term. If the populace seems unduly ungrateful, it only seems to confirm man’s over-riding and pragmatic concern for one’s own self-interest.
The best indicators for economic performance in the modern world are unemployment figures, car sales and housing starts. Higher unemployment figures point to a troubled economy as does lower figure for car sales and housing starts. In Pakistan the method of arriving at statistics is hardly an exact science, therefore one relies more on the perception of greater unemployment rather than verifiable facts. No one takes into account, for example, the number of women working in the fields. Though car sales and housing starts are an indicator of sorts, because of the parallel black economy they are hardly trustworthy. With the on-going recession stifling the most advanced of economies, at the tail-end Pakistan is bound to feel the effects in the reducing quantum of exports to the developed economies, thus enlarging the trade deficit and commensurately the national indebtedness. The slowdown of manufacturing translates into lesser availability of jobs.
Having a low level of literacy, the aspiration level of the Third World-ers is much lower than the threshold of their counterparts in the affluent world. There is a difference also between their relative perceptions to life and world events as best highlighted by their differing priorities. Whereas the average American gives a greater weightage to his quality of life than to military parity with the Soviet Union, the average Pakistani, despite dangling on the fine line between poverty and privation, may want his economic survival assured but would not accept an Indian nuclear hegemony. To quote late Z.A. Bhutto, “will (rather) eat grass”. As the poverty level has risen, economic survival has become increasingly important, overshadowing other material (and emotional) issues.
With a population growth in excess of 2.5%, Pakistan must create in excess of one million jobs each year just to stay upto par with the present average quality of life. Unfortunately our job creation performance is far removed from this reality and as the years roll by our exodus to the Middle East has been reversed and our unemployment figures are rising steadily, an intelligent guess being almost one million a year. This rising graph creates a whole new set of social problems, as the frustration spills over into the streets, a Catch-22 cycle of law and order problems that feed on each other is the end result. The bad security environment causes investment to remain shy.
The greatest priority for any government is to protect the citizens against external aggression and internal disorder. While our strong and well motivated Armed Forces are a bulwark against adventure by our enemies from within and without, regular law enforcement agencies (LEAs)) are finding it increasing convenient in abdicating their traditional role to the Armed Forces. The corruption and inefficiency of the badly compromised police services has increased the workload on the Defence Services. Trying to bail out the LEAs by coming in Aid to Civil Power is not a conducive exercise to be engaged in very frequently as it detracts from the principal role of the Defence Services. A corrective action cannot become an institutionalised set-piece reaction to events. In the longer term, the prime responsibility for enforcing the law of the land must remain with the civil law enforcement agencies and those who cannot do their jobs have no business being on the public payroll. It is upto the political government to ensure that the economic situation is not allowed to deteriorate, the crime graph rising commensurately. To forestall crime and civil disorder, it is again necessary to create jobs.
The greatest task before any political government is to create a conducive environment for foreign and domestic investment in industry and services. The Nawaz Sharif Government has taken far-reaching economic steps to liberalise the economy in order to accelerate development. There is hope in the distant future that these reforms will usher in increased job opportunities, given the ability of the politicos to cajole/coerce a reluctant bureaucracy into line so that potential investors do not find impediments in the flow of investments into the country. However, it is about the present and the near future that we are immediately concerned.
A regular job creates an economic cycle for the whole family, that in turn contributes to the national economy. Instead of a lumpsum grant of Rs 50,000 as charity, it is far better to give the person a regular job @ Rs 2,000 per month, thus creating a permanent economic cycle. While we have to traditionally look to industry for more jobs, we must also give encouragement to the Services sector. To start the process soon we can immediately (1) launch major public sector construction projects and (2) give greater emphasis on institutionalizing the concept of the Services sector. God knows we have need to improve the socio-economic infrastructure of our country, thereby public investment in this process would be more than welcome.
In contrast to the modern economics of the world we do not give much importance to an organised Services sector whereas in a country like ours, it is only by institutionalising the Services sector, giving commensurate material and moral incentives as given to industry, that we shall be able to break through the job logjam. Slowly but surely, we are seeing a gradual improvement in this respect as requirements like security, cleaning, transportation, etc are becoming a part and parcel of commerce in contrast to the individual hiring of persons who tend to become deadweight overheads over the years. The wrong trend was first set by PIA but for the right reasons. As a Services sector did not exist in Pakistan when PIA was on its modernizing campaign to compete with world airlines, the management resorted to hiring of individuals and created commensurate departments within PIA. While in the beginning PIA got away by having a security services department, transport department, etc over the years, these eventually became fiefdoms of inefficiency and corruption, these white elephants have now become unbearable overheads because with retirements, etc a recurring burden has come on PIA that will gradually keep multiplying to PIA’s detriment. At the same time efficiency and cost-effectiveness is much lesser than if the Services had been contracted out. If such services had been found below par or sub-standard, the option exists to choose other companies which are available and can always be hired as replacement. On the other hand there is almost no recourse against the inefficient and corrupt individuals who are now permanent PIA employees, the departmental process can hardly act against individuals because of either their influential support or the powerful trade unions. So we now have a situation where a particular job may not get done but the incumbent keeps holding down a lucrative position in PIA.
The present rules of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) gives only lip-service attention for extending credit to the Services sector, naturally this hampers steady growth as entrepreneurs turn to more expensive non-bank sources. If they are given similar facilities as are given to exporters/importers and the industrial sector, the result will be the creation of many hundreds of thousands of extra jobs in many different fields.
Whether in the industrial or the Services sector, the economic emancipation that this nation is aspiring for can only be achieved by creating many hundreds of thousands of jobs every year. Jobs is the ultimate economic salvation of the nation. For the time being we may well have to embark on a series of public sector projects to force-feed employment opportunities into the economy. The government has made an innovative start by having BOO and BOT schemes for highways and bridges, thus involving the private and expatriate entrepreneurs, why not public sector buildings, medical care, etc based on the same concept?
To us as human beings, there should be no higher priority than to create jobs — and more jobs — to overcome the horrendous poverty around us. The greatest satisfaction lies in providing livelihood for other human beings. Each of us must look into our own capability and potential to ensure an honest means of income for our fellow beings. This must be done without hope of reward and/or favour, without frustration even at the ingratitude that we may occasionally encounter in other human beings. Some people have it in their blood to bite the hand that feeds them. The greatest Blessings that we can receive is not by extending charity but by ensuring that our fellow beings are given the opportunity to be free from misery, hunger, privations, etc on their own accord. A country free of mass frustration is only possible if the citizens of this country are gainfully employed and it behoves each of us to search deep inside ourselves as to what little we may have done for our brethren.
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