A time to fight and a time to unite
The signing of the Afghan Accord represents the first step in ending the untold miseries and the barely bearable hardships associated with largest movement of human population within a small geographical span. Hounded by helicopter gunships, more than 3 million unfortunate Muslims, men, women and children, voted with their feet their profound antipathy to the Godless Society being thrust upon them through the barrels of Kalashnikovs and the gun-sights of T-62 tanks, electing the rough and meagre comforts of refugee camps in Pakistan and Iran. History will record with admiration the hospitality and patient civility of the people of Pakistan, living not only adjacent to the areas of conflict but also along the arterial lifeline of the roads from Karachi to the Afghan Borders. Mr. Gorbachev has bitten the bitter bullet of withdrawal and other than acknowledging his sagacity, one should also accept that it was a brave act of a man with a back to watch because the psychological defeat inflicted on the Russians by their pullout will not go well with the Soviet civil and military hierarchy who will get him, sooner or later. Incidentally, this also applies to clandestine adventures against Pakistan, rather sooner than later.
Analysing the situation purely in commercial terms, the ending of the Soviet military’s “limited” adventure in Afghanistan will have the same dampening effect on Pakistan’s economy as the American withdrawal from Vietnam had on Thailand and the Philippines. As a front-line State serving as a logistic base and conduit for the Mujahideen, our economy had adjusted itself to the positive effects of increased “demand and supply” thereof, along with the supporting services required. The ending of the involvement of the known enemy is bound to cause considerable confusion within the new military elite in Afghanistan composed of heterogeneous factions of varying shades of diverse opinion, which will certainly lead to intensified conflict of the most un-civil kind. This would be an heaven-sent opportunity to the Russians and their pals to nudge this new “war” into spilling over into the territories of Pakistan. The oft-expressed apprehension of our intelligentsia that anarchy will spread through the land, fanned judiciously by antagonistic elements, is singularly and collectively well-founded. The shadow of conflict working in tandem with an economic downturn is a real enough bogey. From a formidable position of economic strength derived from a combination of western economic and military aid coupled with a concerted “demand” situation, we are liable to drift into a state of upheaval affecting our precarious economic balance.
No sane person would consider the elongation of the murderous conflict within Afghanistan but the writing on the wall dictates that we must plan for things to get much worse before they become better. What must occupy our undivided attention in how we can contain the situation from slipping into an economic abyss. The state of the economy must be assessed analytically and the shortfalls that are likely to crop up must be made-up through imaginative substitution. Above all, the prime consideration must be that economic growth in any defined area is only possible if there is peace and tranquillity to sustain it. Anarchy disrupts commercial activity and strict control is necessary to prevent deterioration of law and order orchestrated by vested foreign interests.
In the euphoria of self-congratulations and ritual back-slapping, one tends of forget the positive and dominant role played by General Zia. Without taking anything away from the valiant fight and sacrifices made by the Afghan people for their freedom, couched in a saga of blood, misery and forbearance, one must remember that Zia is by far the one individual who has stood as a lone bulwark for the Afghan people at the Head of State level. While leaders of all shades of public opinion lost heart, he remained steadfastly opposed to accepting the status quo in Afghanistan. Pilloried by the western Press at the beginning of his rule as an Islamic bigot because of his strict adherance to the Faith, his defiance at the odds was contained in his “Peanuts” reply to Carter’s miniscule offer for help as much in his oft repeated belief to skeptical audiences that the Russians would be forced to go back one day, provided one held fast to the rope of Islam. He has been such an unbending will that at the leadership level he must take the sole credit. There may be a myriad number of reasons why one can disagree with him, in theory and substance, but one cannot take away the fact that the real victors in Afghanistan were Zia and Pakistan. A war meant to serve as a stepping stone in the Soviet’s attempt to reach the warm waters of the Indian Ocean was fought by proxy away from Pakistan soil with the minimum shedding of Pakistani blood and the loss of even less material. The holocaust visited on the twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi would pale by comparison with the destruction which could have been caused by a squadron of Russian helicopter gunships in an hour of wanton mayhem. While he shadow-boxed and side-stepped with Machiavellian subtlety various crisis thrust on Pakistan, he simultaneously oversaw the urgent re-armament that the Pakistan Armed Forces required desperately — he found the means and gave them the time needed. In an ocean of trouble we have got off relatively scot-free. Think about it logically, what was Russian’s long-term interest in Afghanistan except as a launching board to the Czarist warm-water dream? Their failure in accomplishing their objective has been because Zia denied them that result. Just because he does not wield a personality cult is no reason to detract or deny Zia this singular, glorious achievement. All leaders who get to the seat of power manoeuvre to stay there, the Pope included. Martial Law imposition and the restoration of democracy aside, history will record that Zia kept Pakistan relatively stable, an island of peace in an virtual ocean of trouble. He deserved much more than the passing mention he got in the PM’s address to the Nation pre-Geneva Accord. We have heard about generals who lose battles and wars, generals who lose all battles and win the war, this must be the first time that war has been won without a battle being fought (with all apologies to the Afghan Mujahideen who off course fought valiantly and successfully for their own land).
As the morass unfolds in Afghanistan post-Geneva and things go from bad to worse, we need General Zia’s talents and immense PR to keep Pakistan on an even keel economically. From being a soldier-statesman he will have to become what many already credit him for, a salesman-statesman. The battle that lies ahead is called economic survival and credibility at the Head of State level is a matter of stature and personality. If the PML Government has had three relatively calm years of rule, it is because of certain uncontestable factors, the prime being relative stability. Now more than ever, Pakistan needs to concentrate on the economic field, all its resources of talent and potential. All credit must be given to all the Opposition Leaders who buried their personal and ideological differences to unify behind PM Junejo in a much-needed show of National Solidarity. This was a stupendous display of mature thought, bred in their deep sense of patriotism and requires now a series of quid pro quos to maintain the momentum subscribing to the development of Pakistan economically.
For nine long years we have charted a course only a whisper away from total destruction. It has been a calculated risk. Reaching the opposite shore we must still negotiate the mud banks and the cords of Faith must be stronger than ever. There have been moments when we thought it was only time before we girded our loins for battle. In this span we have also fought with each other, for senseless reasons born out of selfish motivation and sublime ignorance. One can say, that it has been a time of contention, a time to fight. If Pakistan is to survive then the time to fight must now pass and give way for the time to unite.
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