Now for the hard part
Poverty stricken countries cannot afford long drawn-out euphoria, pledges made to the masses can only be redeemed by positive action, not by falling back on populist demagoguery. 1988 has been soon over giving way to 1989 which promises to be a year of trials, mostly on the economic scene, the landscape having been devastated by inept, indifferent and intellectually dishonest economic managers with an ingrained penchant for ineffective theoretical solutions. Instead of going over the litany of the past, the normal moan and bemoan of woes has to give way to living hope for the future and our approach to our economic problems should be solutions-oriented.
Economic emancipation of the masses must begin with increased employment opportunities and will not be complete without the effective control of inflation. While declaring war on poverty (and hunger) one must remember that this has to be a relentless affair, unremitting in concept, scientifically organised, with imagination and depth in planning, being ruthless in execution. A number of apparent contradictions are inherent in the process, reasonable employment must come along with affordable prices. While the economy cannot succeed without substantial increase in employment potential, this envisages across-the-board de-control, inflation being a sure twin of de-regulation. Our primary aim being economic uplift, we have to chalk out a comprehensive plan to combat the twin menace of unemployment and inflation, emphasis on it being workable, pragmatism rather than theoretical analysis being the order of the day.
In the business of politics, posterity records that elections are usually the easy part, the hard measure being the subsequent administration of the country. As the mixed election results have shown, the public has given only a mandate of sorts to Ms Benazir in the Centre, imposed checks and balances in the form of an opposition government in the major province of Punjab. She has, therefore, to work within restrictive parameters which may not be entirely conducive to planning balanced and mature economic growth. Fitting actual deeds to words in the face of existing realities can strain one’s credibility.
Both domestic and international perceptions have to be tackled on a short and long term basis, priorities given to those policies shaped to ameliorate the sorry lot of the masses. A principled stand is a laudable beacon-light to live by, but the politics of expediency is only able to serve the interests of the common man if that the rulers can maintain a suitable ratio in a positive environment of honesty of purpose. To that end, the PPP Government has made a reasonable start by maintaining a status quo of sorts in the Federal Budget for the remaining financial period upto June 30, 1989 and by not rejecting out of hand the IMF packages agreed upon by Dr Mahbubul Haq as an early Christmas/New Year’s gift to the new rulers (and a parting kick to the masses). To their credit the new Government have quietly asked for re-negotiation which is due to commence this week, by all accounts in a spirit of compromise by the IMF. Pragmatism must continue to be displayed by Ms Benazir’s Government in their approach to the IMF conditionalities, it can only be hoped that IMF negotiators will take into account the special circumstances obtaining in Pakistan and avoid imposing politically untenable conditions. As events in other countries have shown, the streets do not take kindly to increase in the prices of essentials.
One of the prime means of controlling inflation is to reduce administrative expenditure, the non-developmental kind. Drastic reductions should be introduced across-the-board particularly in the use of utilities and services under Federal and Provincial control, directly or indirectly. Work should be contracted out to the private sector so that overall employment slots do not register a net decline, rather private sector inherent efficiency has to be in the forefront of maximising output. Imaginative planning should ensure that what you save with one hand should not be given away with interest from the other. Take the use (or misuse of transport). Former PM Junejo’s Suzuki-ization of administration was an excellent concept, bureaucracy turned it (mostly) into a “second family car” for the gazetted officer. A lesson was learnt here (at great cost), it is no use just planning a concept, it has to be implemented faithfully. Ms Benazir has shown initiative in taking courageous (and unnecessary) risks in foreign policy in trying to launch a new era of relations with India, our “friendly” next-door tormentor, why not take such risks on the domestic scene and plan wholesale changes in the concept of administration which should be democratized and de-centralized starting from the village unit/local union councils upto the district level in the first phase, all administrative and financial powers devolving upon the elected representative at various tiers? When you allow those whom the people have elected to actually govern at all levels will there be positive movement in the economic scenario of the nation. At this moment brilliant young bureaucrats are appointed for a fixed tenure of office (2/3 years at a time) on a hapless population, there is no real bond between the two but a sort of a fiat give by a distant administration. No doubt, the young officers of the District Management Group (DMG) at the Sub-divisional/District level are well qualified and one daresays, enthusiastic and capable, yet they lack experience and commitment. A young, inexperienced person super-imposed from outside the area of concern cannot be allowed to experiment with the destinies of over 200,000 people and sometimes as much as one million in some urban areas. If that logic holds good, why deny the elected representative the same chance right up the tier? At least he knows that he has to turn to the voters periodically to maintain his position and elected status, a mass of people rather than an Annual Confidential Report (ACR) written by a single person. This is the greatest contradiction to the concept of democracy in our land, we pay lip-service to the rule of the people yet hold them in such utter contempt that democracy remains a theoretical exercise, the people having no say in government at the level that it matters most to them, the basic level. One can lay out platitudes for local Government, if it is of the imposed kind, it is a useless and counter-productive exercise.
One aspect of the hard part of governing for Ms Benazir will be how to keep on to espousing socialism while practising capitalistic policies. Because of the present sorry state of socialistic economies in the world and the (revised) aspirations of their respective leaders (Deng Tsao Peng and Gorbachev) to accelerate economic growth by removing the suffocating restraints of a guided economy, it is much easier for PPP to follow their socialistic credentials while following the emerging (capitalistic) Russian and Chinese role models. The economy must be freed of all shackles if it has to grow in measured phases, the bureaucracy having nothing to do with its growth except for purposes of keeping required statistics upto date. One can pontificate about eradicating poverty and hunger by providing employment till Kingdom Come but without the strict control of corruption, the whole process will become a meaningless and counter-productive exercise. One of the greatest contributions to the menace of inflation is made by widespread corruption, which is endemic in Pakistan. The new Government should soon find that the same corrupt few giving allegiance to them who were more loyal than the King to the last administration.
We need leaders who will look beyond the 20th century today. We have a vast coastline without enough ports or the infrastructure to support new developments. The whole hinterland needs to be developed and populated. Our major effort should be two-fold, (1) to develop into new frontiers where more and more employment opportunities will also lead to trans-migration relieving the burden on our existing cities and (2) to re-develop the socio-economic infrastructure of the older cities so that roads, water, sewerage, gas and telephone facilities are rehabilitated and modernized.
Anyone can rule, history records that there are a greater number of bad rulers, the better ones being exceptions to the rule. Posterity also notes that the greater leaders are those that dare to change the system. If any system needs to be changed it is in Pakistan, nothing can be as bad as the present situation, the bureaucracy having stifled free enterprise so completely that only massive resuscitation will revive the body economic. Positive decisions have to be taken in the light of the existing scenario, unfortunately we cannot afford wrong ones as much as poor countries cannot afford the luxury of poor leaders.
One of the unfortunate aspects about democracy is that people chose their leaders in their own image, the choice being as good or bad as the people themselves. If the new leadership falls by the wayside, the blame for their failure would be attributable as much to the peoples’ bad decision as the uselessness of the leaders. On the contrary economic success in the face of the present appalling conditions would be a great achievement for the nouveau leaders as much as a great tribute to the people who chose them.
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