Damage Control
Rip Van Winkle woke to a new world after sleeping for twenty years, this nation had to wait for 40 years since the Tamizuddin case to wake up from its extended slumber. The immediate feeling is that of euphoria, of complete freedom, the casting away of bureaucratic shackles that have suffocated this country for almost all its life span. For the foreseeable future the rule of law seems to have been restored but the subsequent dissolution of the Punjab Provincial Assembly has shown that the potential of the Evil Empire for mayhem remains alive though somewhat diminished. For the first time in four decades, the actual rulers of this country, bureaucracy and its “Republican” political allies (mainly from among the landed class) are under pressure from real democracy, not their stunted, guided version of it. The main prop in the persistence of their bluff has been the support of a usually gullible military, in the absence of that support they have been badly exposed as paper tigers at best, at worst as connivers and manipulators. The Nawaz Sharif regime does not have time to gloat over the return of fortune, they have to shift into high gear to rescue the nation from the flat spin that we are now in economically, politically and in the realm of foreign affairs. Mention must be made of the memorable photograph of the Honourable Justices walking out of the Supreme Court Chamber after delivering their historic verdict, the shortest man by far, Chief Justice Mr. Nasim Hassan Shah, seemed to be tallest among a group of men who had good reason to be walking tall. In the individual context, the stoic forbearance of Justice Shafiur Rahman in the face of a profound personal tragedy will remain a shining example in the putting of duty before self.
The humiliated and angry President was persuaded by those he called into the Presidential Palace in the immediate aftermath of the verdict that discretion rather than drastic, desperate means was called for. The short terse release from the Presidential palace accepting the Supreme Court verdict left unsaid the fact that a trial balloon to gauge the reaction of the men in uniform had been shot down by the Army. In the first instance by a rather vehement (toned down later) disassociation from a seemingly innocent Press release of the Ministry of Defence blatantly intended to influence the Supreme Court and reinforce perception among the masses that the Army was less than neutral in the President’s favour. When this bluff was corrected, the resultant backlash virtually demolished the psychological perception about the President’s source of strength. On the evening of Judgement Day the military hierarchy indicated that it was no longer ready to be a Praetorian Guard, with that the President’s gamble cashing in on his most recent IOUs had failed.
Nawaz Sharif faces major economic and political problems at home. Among other desperate stratagems to protect his seat of power, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan has gambled with the unity of the Federation by playing the “Provincial card”, i.e. the Provinces would be estranged from the Centre if Nawaz Sharif came back. As the Governments formed in the Provinces are all led by Presidential nominees with varying degrees of political acceptability, their rebellion could potentially be a most dangerous development. Facing an erosion of his month old support in the Punjab turncoat CM Wattoo opted to go the coward’s route in advising the Governor to dissolve the Punjab Assembly, another legal battle is in the offing. For Nawaz Sharif, the regaining of his power base in the Punjab is most important for the continuance of Federal authority over the Provinces. In Balochistan, Taj Mohammad Jamali has already resigned in favour of Nawab Magsi and Akbar Bugti has given indications from his self-imposed exile in Dera Bugti that he was more than willing and able to be mollified. Mr. Afzal Khan of the Frontier Province who was judged to be the strongest among the CMs, with PPP support he could have remained a thorn in the side of the Federal Government, has also opted for dissolution rather than face the rapid rot in his strength. Weaker than all the CMs, including the now deposed Jamali, Muzzafar Hussain Shah has no importance as a politician except as an articulate front man able to mark time till a successor is agreed upon. Muzaffar Shah could well use his very lack of any power base as a sort of a bargaining chip, an acceptable commodity to all as harmless. Nawaz Sharif may have to rein in basic inclinations to dump the recalcitrant CM down the chemical-polluted Lyari River. Some solution will have to be found to keep the Provinces in line without rubbing salt into their perceived wounds and thus exacerbating the unity of the Federation.
If Salim Jam Mazari had not taken virtual control of the PM’s Secretariat, Balakh Sher Mazari would have been best remembered as an honest bull who wandered unknowingly for 39 days into the economic china shop of Pakistan, creating more long-term damage to investor confidence than can ever be properly assessed. Before sitting down to do an Examination in the Army in the old days, one had to certify, quote “I did not know the contents of this Examination before I sat down to take the Examination” or some such. On taking the Lower Urdu paper, Capt (Retd) Asghar A. Gilani, now a proud resident of Takht Mahal, Bahawalnagar, duly certified that he did not know anything about the contents BEFORE, DURING or AFTER the examination. So let it be with Mr. Mazari! It took years to build up investor confidence in the economy, preceded by a spate of Nawaz Sharif initiated liberalising reforms. While loudly proclaiming their intentions to go along with the substance of Nawaz Sharif’s economic reforms if not the form, the PPP stalwart and Finance Minister Farooq Leghari was all set to change the form and substance wherever the PPP could get away with it. By trying to put corruption and mal administration labels on Nawaz Sharif, the Caretaker Government damaged our financial credibility and undercut Pakistan’s economic thrust, whether they realized this or not or simply did not care is a moot question. Nawaz Sharif and his Finance Minister, Sartaj Aziz, will have to move swiftly to restore international credit worthiness. The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) went into paroxysms on hearing about the reinstatement of the Nawaz Sharif government in the way of all Stock Markets hearing good news, one expects that foreign exchange that took flight will come back in due course, if not in a rush. The Caretaker Government kept on repeating that they would persevere with the liberal policies of Nawaz Sharif though they probably hated every minute of such a clear vindication of the policies of their much despised opponent. Some spectacular economic initiatives to restore international investor interest in Pakistan will have to be taken, the Finance Minister will have to conduct a wide-ranging damage control operation.
A lurking suspicion persists that the re-conditioned Mian Zahid Sarfraz was a Nawaz Sharif-mole in the Presidential camp. This man’s anti-Nawaz Sharif fulminations on TV between cold glasses of water and the soaking of tissues from the never-ending perspiration on his forehead, brought more converts to the Nawaz Sharif cause than people can imagine. One believes that criminal charges of attempted mass murder against Sarfraz may be in the offing, in that he attempted mass genocide of the people of Pakistan by attempting to bore them to death. One must point out that the privatisation plan was good in theory but not in actual implementation. Leaving the banks aside, where the credit-worthiness of the Bidders was verified, the no-questions-asked policy about the source of funds for bidding for taken-over industries was tailor-made for corruption. Whether corruption took place or not, the street perception was that the implementation process lacked complete credibility. It may be important that you are fair, it is more important that you are seen to be fair. Unfortunately this was not the public perception.
The area of greatest concern along with economics remains foreign affairs, the “terrorist nation” threat may be more than imminent because of a stricter application of US laws by US Congress. Balakh Sher Mazari threw the US a sacrificial lamb in the person of the then DG ISI, Lt Gen Javed Nasir, using an unfortunate choice of words in calling the retirement as “drumming out”. The General had been indiscreet in the display of his beliefs in public, not exactly conducive to western sensitivity about Islamic Fundamentalism. It is rumoured that he was charged by western governments with fomenting terrorism in a neighbouring land. As an Intelligence Chief he should have adopted a more obsequious role, a la Gehlen. Pakistan will have to forcefully dispel the “terrorist state” image, a lot depends upon mature responses from Nawaz Sharif, eschewing personal loyalty for the national interest. In the realm of foreign policy, Siddique Khan Kanju has emerged as a forceful and articulate executor in the implementation of the government’s foreign policy. Movement on a broad diplomatic front, would keep up drumbeat in the support of our contentions, in this respect he needs assistance by the induction of credible private sector individuals for specific tasks and regions. Heaven alone knows what all the Caretaker Government has conceded in their enthusiasm to defame the Nawaz Sharif Government. On the terrorism, nuclear, drugs and other issues, Pakistan needs to launch a sophisticated campaign to soften our present image and blunt the international diplomatic and media offensive against us.
Damage Control must cover many other areas but in the final context it must start with self-evaluation. The Prime Minister has honestly admitted that there were lapses that he will endeavour to correct. The blind spot towards PPP was dictated by the President, it was not a PML compulsion. Within the parameters of this constraint, Nawaz Sharif tried to rectify this after November’s Long March but could not, given the manipulations of the Presidential Palace and bad faith on the part of the PPP. The venom of President Ishaq against Ms Bhutto (all the References were filed by him through that Paragon of References, Roedad Khan) notwithstanding, she was pragmatic in joining up with her old nemesis in temporarily ousting Nawaz Sharif from power. Nawaz Sharif must forgive her, the PPP’s erratic political track record is witness to the fact that most of the time the PPP knows not what they do, having made it fashionable to take the wrong turn at all historic crossroads. Despite all this a significant part of the Pakistan population remains enamoured with Ms Bhutto, her charisma remains a potent factor in national politics. For the sake of national unity and the sustenance of democracy, Nawaz Sharif has to be indulgent. Ms Benazir has this outstanding potential of being able to win any elections held outside the country, for the sake of international credibility the PPP should be brought in from the cold. The talk about a national government may be a pipe dream given the PPP’s recent display of bad faith but a consensus on national issues between the two major political parties is a must in the national interest. A credible election machinery can be one matter of consensus, it is a must for credible government.
In bowing to the verdict of the Supreme Court, the President reluctantly accepted the immediate reverse, he seems to have no intention of ever giving up on his machinations. Before he is pushed into such a situation, he must do the Honourable Thing voluntarily. Mr Ajmal Khattak of ANP recently spoke about Pathan honour and self-respect but such platitudes do not cut any ice with Ghulam Ishaq Khan and the intrigues will continue, sans honour and self-respect. Among the many things which require damage control, no other issue has greater priority than the smooth and early transition of the President into retirement and history.
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