The Swing of the Pendulum
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) that arose out of the ashes of the former Soviet Union is itself in dire straits. While Norman Thomas held that “the alternative to the totalitarian state is the cooperative commonwealth”, the association in question is better known for its various disagreements and generally uncooperative stance towards each other, born mainly out of chaos and confusion but also the inherent suspicion between the various Republics about who is to get the best piece out of the carcass of a once powerful nation. While most of the argument should be about economic assets, contention is more pronounced about dividing the military power structure, particularly between Russia and the Ukraine.
One of the dominant images coming out of the failed Aug 20 coup was of an overpowering Boris Yeltsin, standing tall for democracy. In contrast, Gorbachev’s performance was pathetic, it was only a question of the time before he was brushed aside, that his political demise would signal the end of the Soviet Superpower nation was unprecedented. Boris Yeltsin’s driving ambition may ostensibly be for democracy, it has very human connotations, the selfish urge to be an all powerful master rather than being more than an equal partner is very much visible. The western media tends to presently gloss over his obvious shortcomings, it suits the western alliance.
As things stand today, the CIS is in deep trouble. A market economy has been force-fed by Yeltsin by the removing of price controls but has resulted in the dramatic increase in the price of essentials, particularly food, beyond the purchasing capacity of the common citizen. In Russia as well as the other Republics, a great preponderance of the citizens live well below the poverty line. With prices running out of control for commodities that are at best rarely available, a great seething frustration is brewing among the masses. In town after town, city after city, Yeltsin is having to face angry mobs who question his policies, showing increasing signs of losing their remaining patience.
They cannot understand how they fell so far down and to such a deprived status from being of one of the world’s two great Superpowers, their military might remains a potent force but seems likely to be shorn away by what they see as western prompting without any reciprocal disarmament by the west.
The recent Assembly of 5,000 selected officers of the Armed Forces of the former USSR in Moscow was symbolic of this discontent. The voices raised in unison were exceedingly clear, the military men want their great machine to remain united, decrying those who are working to break it into components belonging to various Republics. Most of the vituperation was directed at President Kravchuk of the Ukraine who wanted to divide the powerful Black Sea Fleet. In a direct contradiction of the agreement that led to the formation of the CIS, the Russian Parliament voted on Thursday 23 Jan 92 to (1) demand full control over the Black Sea Fleet and (2) for the return of the Crimean Peninsula, having the strategic (and historic) port of Sebastopol. While the tone of the resolution was conciliatory insofar as dialogue has been recommended, it will not be well-received in Kiev, already suspicious of future Russian domination.
The economic problems of the former Soviet Union may have hastened its disintegration but the soul of this once great Superpower remains personified by the momentum of the continuing unity of the Armed Forces. The military voices in the Moscow Assembly were vehement in decrying the chaos and confusion caused by the ill-planned break-up, their pain force-multiplied by the long lines for non-existent bread, eggs, poultry, meat etc. The Russian military has relatively been the worst affected, moving back from the territories of their former “allies”, where they were billeted in comfortable lodgings and had adequate rations, the already low morale among former Soviet soldiers is worsened by hunger and being lodged in sparsely equipped tent cities in bitterly cold weather. No wonder that the frustration among the masses is now exceedingly finding military teeth.
Given the events leading upto his accession as Gorbachev’s replacement and the raised expectations thereof, Boris Yeltsin has not shown any great managerial capacity, on the contrary despite being ostensibly a vocal advocate of democracy, he has shown a strong streak of dictatorial tendencies. While he still has a vast reservoir of goodwill to draw from, this may have been used up quite rapidly because of the hunger, cold and general deprivation among Russia’s populace. With the military openly resentful about its removal from its national pedestal and bitter about the government’s plans to drastically cut into its ranks and capabilities because of budgetary restraints, the factor that turned the Aug 20 coup in Yeltsin’s favour may now be turning against him. His own Vice-President, General Alexander Rutskoi, a war hero, is openly critical of his actions that have brought the former Soviet Union to such a disarray. Rutskoi is extremely well-respected within the military establishment and the mood of the populace being what it is, Yeltsin may soon find himself replaced by Rutskoi. As it is, Yeltsin is suffering from severe heart problems, given the pressures of his present predicament, he may well be overtaken by natural circumstances rather than the artificial process of being overthrown.
Events have taken a new life in the CIS, while the west is quite happy about the collapse of its former adversary, it is not complacent about the consequences of a violent cataclysm. President Bush recently chaired a meeting of over 40 affluent countries to organise an immediate food and economic aid programme for the CIS as a modern version of the Marshall Plan for Europe, using the USAF Airlift command, reminiscent of the Berlin Airlift in 1948. The EEC is far ahead of the USA in the despatch of aid but while it is certainly in the pipeline, the required volume and distribution arrangements of the aid leave a lot to be desired.
The situation is volatile, as yet most of the visible friction is between Russia and the Ukraine, what is keeping the Central Asian States quiet is the overwhelming personality of Kazakhastan President Nursultan Nurbayev. As it is, Georgia is faced with civil war while Armenia and Azerbaijan are almost in open conflict because of the Nagorno Karabakh Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan. While in both these regions nuclear weapons are not in the hands of adversaries, what happens if Russia and Ukraine cannot decide their problems or if Yeltsin is overthrown in a coup, with his supporters and detractors deciding to fight out the issues? Or if the western countries decide that Kazakhastan’s 100 or so ballistic missiles and 1,000 or so nuclear warheads constitute an unacceptable “Islamic nuclear menace” and decide to take them out, with or without Russian help?
Gorbachev started something but it took more than 5 years for the process to run out of control, the momentum of 70 years of centralized control ensured that. In the resultant vacuum Yeltsin may well have set off the Doomsday clock, the possible death knell of civilization in an inadvertent nuclear holocaust because the fabric that bound the former society together has simply evaporated. In the final analysis, it may have been better for the west to have elected to have an adversary of sorts so that there was some exercise of control over one of the most devastating military machines that the world has ever known.
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