D Minus 5 Countdown or meltdown?
The third and final PATHFINDER POLL (16-25 Jan 97) ascertained the preference of the electorate in 75 cities and towns on a much more comprehensive basis, including most of the rural areas not fully covered in the two earlier polls confined to only 30 cities and towns. Two vital queries had been added, viz (1) whether elections or accountability first? and (2) the voter preference for candidates in different constituencies? In Punjab, Sindh and NWFP a majority did want accountability first but overall a slight majority (52%) of the populace favoured elections first, mainly because in the urban areas of Sindh, mostly the deprived MQM, wanted elections first in overwhelming numbers. The translation of voter preference to seat acquisition by political parties remains a somewhat inexact science in Pakistan, particularly because of the “first past the post” system. Imran Khan’s Tehrik-i-Insaf (TI) displays nationwide support of almost 16%, averaging about the same in all the Provinces, but has only 3 seats projected in the National Assembly (NA) to show for it.
In the NA seat for the Islamabad Capital Territory, Benazir’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) is ahead at 38% to Mian Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML (N)) at 32% with TI a distant third at 22%. The PPP vote has been buoyed by PML (N) turncoat MNA, Haji Nawaz Khokhar’s vote bank going to PPP as well as the fact that PPP candidate Nayyar Bukhari has always been a strong candidate even in previous NA elections. However, there are indications that Khokhar’s supporters may not toe his line and will still vote PML (N).
Out of the 1,765 people who responded to questions in the Punjab in 34 cities and towns, a solid 42% supported PML (N) with only 21% for PPP and 3% for its PML (Junejo) ally, making a total of 24% for the Pakistan Democratic Front (PDF), the PPP-PML (J) alliance. TI followed at 16% with non-contestant Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) at 4% and Ghinwa Bhutto’s PPP (Shaheed Bhutto) at 2%. In actual seat counts for the NA in the Punjab, PML (N) is favoured to win about 73 seats while PPP is ahead in 22 seats with PML (J) expected to get 3 seats. For the Punjab Assembly consisting of 240 seats, PML (N) with 141 seats has an overholding lead over PPP’s 61 with ally PML (J) getting only around 8 seats. Its 16% support Province-wide in Punjab gets the TI only one seat.
In the NWFP, PML (N) at 23% is leading in voter preference of the 577 voters approached in 17 cities and towns, slightly over the PPP at 22% but when you add ANP’s 14% to PML (N), the grand total (37%) of the alliance is much more than the PDF count of 27% when including PML (J)’s 5%. TI is at 17%, JI (9%), PPP (SB) 5% with others such as Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) clocking in with 6% votes concentrated in certain areas. PML (N) is projected to get 9 NA seats and its ally ANP 6 seats while PPP has 4 and its PDF ally PML (J) 1 seat. JUI (F) should get 2 seats. For the Provincial Assembly which has 80 seats, the results are startling as PML (N) despite leading in voter percentage (more than 6 percentage points) agreed to give away more constituencies to ANP to preserve the alliance. Result is the ANP should get 30 seats while PML (N) only 14, PPP has 10 and PML (J) 4 seats. JUI (F) has 5 but there are a large number of independents who may get elected, as much as 14.
In Sindh where 966 voters were requested to give their choices to a menu of various questions in 17 cities and towns, both PPP and PML (N) had equal support at 21% except that PML (N) support was spread throughout the Province as was the 12% support of TI but the PPP support along with PML (J) at 4% was mostly focussed in the rural areas. PPP (SB) clocked in with mainly rural 11% support, most of it because of the crossing over of mainline PPP rebels. Caretaker Chief Minister Mumtaz Bhutto’s Sindh National Front (SNF) was little opposed as an independent.
PML (N) with 88 seats in the NA and its electoral ally ANP (6 seats) make a total of 94 MNAs between them are near the magic figure of 109 seats to get an absolute majority in order to form the Government at the Centre. The PDF alliance, PPP 45 seats and PML (J) 3 are quite a way behind with a projected total of only 48 MNAs. It is expected that MQM with 14 seats and PPP (SB) with 7 seats will join the ruling coalition with a number of independents. The FATA tribals are likely to follow suit. Mian Nawaz Sharif is, therefore, on course to lead the Federal Government with a comfortable majority in the NA.
The PML (N) with about 141 seats projected in the Punjab Assembly is clearly placed to establish the government in the Punjab while an ANP-PML (N) alliance is on course to form the government in the NWFP. Despite the surprisingly strong projected PPP showing (42 seats) in Sindh one expects it to be in the Opposition with the cobbling together of a post-elections alliance of MQM with PML (N), PPP (SB) and SNF with a number of independents joining in with one of the political parties in the ruling coalition. In Balochistan, who will form the government is anybody’s guess as the permutations and combinations thereof among the parties is quite mind-boggling. Maybe Nawab Zulfikar Ali Magsi can repeat his last Houdini act as Chief Minister, maybe Nawab Akber Khan Bugti’s JWP will lead the alliance. It is also quite possible BNP’s Sardar Ataullah Khan Mengal can be the leader of a new coalition. In any case the fragmentation of parties makes any safe guess impossible. Balochistan will have more of the same.
The pre-elections polls show that the PPP suffered mightily because of the 3 years Zardari reign. Its vote bank has been eaten into mainly by Imran Khan’s TI in all the Provinces but specially by Ghinwa Bhutto’s PPP (SB) in Sindh. With political survival at stake and Zardari away from the scene, Benazir Bhutto has fought back courageously to remain in contention. It has been quite a performance in the circumstances. PPP (SB) has benefited enough for it to be in line for a possible slot in the ruling coalition in the Centre as well as in Sindh but TI has been left way out in the cold in spite of its strong showing voter-wise nationally. TI has less than half the seats JI normally gets to show for its performance nationally or in the Provinces. TI should be proud to have made a statement of sorts but has no real future in the present electoral system. Some of the problems can be traced back to lack of time for preparation, bad organization and logistics as well as very poor selection of electoral candidates. Unless TI learns that politics is the art of compromise, its supporters stand to be nearly completely disenfranchised because of the present “first past the post” electoral system. There is a strong case here for (1) Proportional Representation (PR) and (2) a run-off vote ie if the first election does not yield an absolute majority (50% plus) in any constituency. A Joint Electorate is a must simply because the competition for Minorities seats is a farce, they are not largely contested and are not really representative of their communities. Above all there is need for a National Census on an urgent basis and fresh delimitation of constituencies thereof. Fully 60% of the people of the country now live in the urban areas but have only 40% of the seat allocations in the Assemblies whereas rural population (40%) has 60% of the seat allocations ie. less than half the cake given to their rural cousins.
For Mian Nawaz Sharif, winning the elections after 3 years out in the political cold will be the easy part, the problems Pakistan faces are daunting enough for any person. Mian Sahib has to exercise checks on his close aides and advisors, the type of opportunists who failed Benazir. They may now try and out-do Asif Zardari, Mian Nawaz Sharif’s control over them will be the measure of this success, in that success will lie the future prosperity of the country.
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