Measuring public opinion It’s the economy, stupid

An analysis of the polls show that economic issues dominate the public mind and it is their perception that PML (N) leader Mian Nawaz Sharif has the ability to deal with economic issues that make him the most popular leader presently and thus makes PML (N) the leading party.

Perceptions aside, the real feeling of the people can only be gauged by evaluating the results of a poll across the country. In trying to measure public opinion pre-elections, Research and Collection Services Ltd. (RCS), a private company engaged in market analysis, targeted two age groups in both the sexes, male and female, to determine the answers to a number of questions some of which are politically operative in the context of the Feb 3 elections viz (1) what do you rate is the two most important political issues in the country among (a) unemployment (b) inflation (c) corruption (d) illiteracy (e) poor health system (f) restricted freedom of expression and (g) aristocratic ruling class ? (2) your favourite political party? (3) why? (4) what do you like about the leader most (a) honesty (b) personality (e) political views (d) ability to speak (e) ability to manage the economy and (f) religious views? (5) what party are you likely to vote for? and (6) comment on the political system. The age groups targeted wise (1) “age 18 to 30” and (2) “age 31 and over” in both the sexes.

The groups that were requested to answer were (a) self-employed (b) professional (c) clerical (d) skilled worker (e) semi-skilled worker (f) farmer (g) unskilled worker and (h) student. The questionnaire was spread over 30 towns and cities in all the Provinces.

There are inherent flaws in a correct evaluation as 70 per cent of the answers were obtained from the urban population and only 30 per cent from the rural population whereas today’s Assembly-seat calculations are based on the inaccurate and old census which gives 60 per cent of the seats to rural areas and 40 per cent to urban areas. The ground reality is that 40 per cent of the population is in the rural areas and 60 per cent is urban based. In effect, we have disenfranchised almost 20 per cent of the urban population by not having fresh census and demarcating new constituencies.

Nevertheless the crude poll was enough to give some early indications of the present trend. For example 31 per cent of those interviewed felt that “corruption” was the most important political issue facing the country followed by the 28 per cent who felt that “unemployment was more important. Among the other issues in double digits were “inflation” at 15 per cent and “illiteracy” at 14 per cent. Interestingly enough only 3 per cent gave weightage to “freedom of expression” and 4 per cent to the vagaries of the “aristocratic ruling class”, behind the 6 per cent who felt “health” was a more important issue. Predominantly 28 per cent of the females of the “31 and over” age group felt “inflation” was more important double the national average of 14 per cent.
Collectively “unemployment” and “inflation” indicated that “economy” was the dominant issue in the coming polls. A large number who volunteered to answer the questions were “professional” people either “self-employed” or “clerical” Most reluctant to answer questions were “farmers” representing the rural population thereby putting some doubt as to the accuracy of the poll. Among the qualities the public aspired for in their favourite leaders was “honesty” at 33 per cent followed by “political views” and “ability to manage the economy” at 14 per cent each.

“Personality” seekers were registered at 13 per cent while “ability to speak got only 7 per cent just ahead of “religious views: at 6 per cent. The results may not be that accurate but do show clear trend as far as the public support for political parties/political leaders is concerned. In Punjab 42 per cent of the people support Mian Nawaz Sharif and PML (N) followed by new entrant Imran Khan (Tehrik-i-Insaf) at 18 per cent followed by Ms Benazir Bhutto at 15 per cent. Imran Khan’s strong showing is at the cost of PPP. Qazi Hussain Ahmed’s Jamaat-i-Islami gets a support of 7 per cent (this poll was earlier to the boycott) with Ghinwa Bhutto’s PPP (SB) and Altaf Hussain’s MQM at 1 per cent each with 15 per cent supporting miscellaneous candidates or undecided as yet. Obviously Ms Benazir Bhutto’s support percentage will go up considerably when counting the rural votes but even then the polls indicate that she has taken quite a beating and while she may retain support in the rural areas she will not be able to draw votes away from Mian Nawaz Sharif whose vote bank remains firm.

In Sindh the result are even more startling insofar as TI at 16 per cent and PPP (SB) at 8 per cent have taken away the once-solid vote bank of PPP (estimated at newly 45 per cent in 1990) leaving the party at a meagre 13 per cent as compared to PML (N) at 16 per cent. Because of the urban orientation of the polls it is not surprising that MQM leads the pack at 21 per cent but its votes are concentrated in certain constituencies giving it a formidable seat acquisition capacity in the urban areas that it contests. In the rural areas PPP vote bank will certainly transcend that of Tehrik-i-Insaaf (TI) which like the PML (N) does not have “critical mass” which can translate its 16 per cent into “safe” seats. The Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) remains steady at 6 per cent.
Whereas it was expected that PPP Superstar Aftab Sherpao will hold his own in the NWFP again Imran Khan at 18 per cent has severely eroded PPP’s vote bank and reduced it to 14 per cent but remains behind PML (N)’s 24 per cent. Again JI remains at 6 per cent. ANP gets about 9 per cent approval but its appeal is concentrated in the Peshawar Valley and as such enough to translate into quite a number of seats. Unlike ANP, TI is spread out and does not have credible leaders who can convert its popular support into Assembly seats. Fully 25 per cent of those questioned are undecided voters or likely to vote for independents, leaders who are strong in their own constituency but without a party label.

In Balochistan PML (N) is clocking in at 40 per cent followed by PPP at 17 per cent though surprisingly PPP (SB) has 5 per cent but a vast segment of 26 per cent are undecided while others are splintered into smaller parties with concentration in their own areas giving them 1-3 seats each on the same pattern as in the last 2 elections. In the Islamabad Capital Territory, the results are again reflective of the overall trend with PML (N) very strong at 47 per cent followed by TI at 14 per cent with a vast majority undecided at 21 per cent PPP at 7 per cent is reduced to being neck and neck with JI at 6 per cent. Two more polls will have to be conducted before the elections before anything can be said with any certainty but at this moment PML (N) is clearly in the lead. PPP’s vote bank has eroded spectacularly with main beneficiary being Imran Khan’s TI, both in the Punjab and NWFP while in Sindh. PPP (SB) has got a fair segment of the PPP vote bank in Sindh, enough to be a credible opposition to the once formidable PPP electoral power house in the Sindh rural areas. If PPP (SB) manages an electoral adjustment. PPP could end up being on the wrong side of a lop sided result.

Imran Khan’s problem will be to translate his overall 17 per cent votes into seats so we are likely to hear a lot more about Proportional Representation (PR) after the elections. He will certainly benefit more from frustrated JI voters than anyone else. While it may not win many seats. TI’s message of Accountability (Ehtasab) seems to have caught the fancy of the masses. This may not be enough to deny PML (N) a maximum number of seats but even with the support — its ANP allies — short of the magic 108 number in the National Assembly (NA).

An analysis of the polls show that economic issues dominate the public mind and it is their perception that PML (N) leader Mian Nawaz Sharif has the ability to deal with economic issues that make him the most popular leader presently and thus makes PML (N) the leading party. In the US 1992 Presidential elections, President George Bush kept on harping on the platform of his primary strength, foreign policy while the voters were sending a very different message to him, “It’s the economy, stupid!”

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