Ms Benazir’s government Transition period
While it is considered good form in western democracies to give any new government coming to power a honeymoon period of at least 100 days, the compulsions of the November 13 Presidential elections will probably eliminate that possibility. This is rather unfortunate as it takes time for the new incumbents to settle down into the business of running the day-to-day affairs of the country and it is not fair not to be given a transition period in which to structure one’s “A Team”. Furthermore, despite its commanding lead of NA seats, the Ms Benazir Regime has to tread with care in the formulation of its executive authority and enunciation of its policies on various issues because of the swing vote that the minority groupings seem to command in all the Assemblies.
The first and foremost concern of the Government of Pakistan (GOP) should be the economy of Pakistan. Essentially Pakistan has been in a transition stage because of the wide-ranging liberal economic reforms enacted by the Nawaz Sharif regime. As bureaucratic obstacles came tumbling down and the Pakistani Rupee came close to free convertibility, the Establishment dug its heels in and slowed down the process by various subterfuges and stratagems. At the same time, the privatisation process did not go along the accepted Thatcher-model of “letting a hundred flowers bloom” with respect to proliferation of shareholding among the general public. Already vulnerable because of the transitional status, the economy was hit with the worst floods in the century in September/October 1992 causing extensive damage as well as diverting precious time and resources. The “Long March” followed in November 1992 and then after a brief hiatus, the sustained political crisis of 1993 that saw three changes of government including the present one. The economic state had become uncertain by the time the last Caretaker Administration took over. Changing from over-centralization to the other extreme in liberal economic mores require a stable economic environment over an extended period, economic emancipation can only be achieved by way of increased investment which becomes shy in an unsettled state. Because of increasing development expenditures, there is an increasing of deficits in the face of decreasing revenues. Nawaz Sharif may have been politically destabilized by the process initiated against him, simultaneously the country went into a state of economic limbo. What the Caretaker Government inherited was not the result of bad economic management or policies but the cumulative effect of a government paralysed by political and bureaucratic action over an extended period of time. According to the Caretaker Administration that handed over charge to the elected Bhutto government, their action in devaluation and raising of prices has put the economy on the road to a very sound footing. This will have to be confirmed by Mr. V.A. Jafarey, the Advisor to the PM on Economic Affairs, who is not an innovator in the class of Senator Sartaj Aziz but is well respected as a sound fiscal manager.
Before suggesting an agenda for the Ms Benazir regime to adhere to, we should first see whether the elected government can persevere with the economic reforms and other major initiatives that the Caretaker Government undertook with such fanfare. To start with is the imposition of the tax on income on agriculture. This was MQ’s first serious initiative, an attempt to draw at least 250,000 landowners into the tax net. Ms Benazir’s major support emanates from the landowner class and the rural areas but a fair amount of the urban population also voted for her. For the sake of increased government revenues that is necessary to cut down the large deficit, legislative process must confirm the ordinances in the two major Provincial Assemblies PPP dominates. There must be an even sharing of the tax burden in order to meet government expenditures and development costs. Instead of revenues being recovered as tax, an innovative method of deduction at source of credit must be adopted. This will be in accordance with the revolutionary scheme of abolishing income taxes and decentralizing wealth tax to the Provinces that Ms Benazir was seriously thinking of implementing in 1990 (reference three articles on “Abolishing the Income Tax System”, THE NATION, March 1990) when she was removed as PM by GIK. As a complete policy package, this will be a total revamping of the system and she could get bipartisan support from the PML(N) on this issue but she risks annoying her landed class support who would like to continue to live off the fat of the land. Turning the clock back on the Caretaker reform will certainly affect the financial credibility of the Ms Benazir regime and undercut the will thereof to implement hard decisions.
The MQ Regime mandated that the PM and CMs discretion with respect to allotment of plots be abolished, Ms Benazir must persist with this. In the matter of plot allotments since 1985, Committees composed of people of integrity should be set up at the Federal and Provincial levels to go into each and every case. If a particular allotment was made because the allottee gave good service to the country, then it should be confirmed. However, if the allotment was made as a political or personal “perk”, the property should either be resumed by the government or the market value of the plot at the time of allotment be recovered from the original allottee.
The credit amount that has been written off and the defaulting loan should be recovered in full. Penalties in our banking system are too high for defaulting interest and instalment payments and should be revised. At the same time a realistic cut-off period should declare the loan in default and stop the clock so that amounts are not overblown out of proportion by the delays, making them irrecoverable. Some people living in this country have siphoned off millions and millions, do not pay it and continue to live in luxury. Such loan defaulters continue to occupy pride of place as the doyens of society. A law should be enacted blacklisting all those from receiving any further credit from any scheduled bank in Pakistan or for membership of prestigious institutions. The industry or enterprise in the individual’s name or that of his immediate family as well as all known personal property should be confiscated and they should be placed on the Exit Control List (ECL). The MQ Regime did not go far enough in this respect as they confined themselves to blacklisting only those trying to enter the legislative Assemblies. While this was good media projection, the seriousness of Caretaker purpose was badly undercut by the fact that both Syed Babar Ali and Ali Khan Junejo continued to remain Ministers despite being “Mentioned in Despatches” of being defaulters. However, loan default must be clearly specified so that the individual has a chance to reschedule the debt. Given that benefit of doubt if a person does not return the money he (or she) owes to any financial institution then that person should be treated by law as a bank robber. This analogy should also apply to unpaid bills of utilities, however again the individuals must be given due opportunity to redeem the outstanding amounts.
The two major issues facing us in foreign policy are inter-linked with India, the Kashmir problem and the nuclear non-proliferation question. Thankfully Ms Benazir’s immediate reaction to both has been extremely positive as one would expect from the PM of Pakistan. Understandably, on Kashmir, the raising of the question at the Commonwealth Summit upset India, more so because India may have thought Benazir would be “softer” on Kashmir than other leaders. For the record, any political leader who compromises Pakistan’s position on Kashmir will get a short shrift, Ms Benazir may be more inclined for dialogue than confrontation but that is in the form of approach not the substance of the beliefs that all Pakistanis hold. On Kashmir she has a fairly constant record. Of more interest was her statement on keeping open the nuclear option which seemed to upset the US media. The US position is that it wants nuclear non-proliferation at all costs and recognizes Kashmir as a burning issue but does not link the two. One understands US concerns about a possible Doomsday scenario because of nuclear proliferation but without such a deterrent in our hands India will visit Doomsday on us. This feeling has been reinforced by western inaction and benign indifference while Bosnia is savagely torn apart. Her undeniable popularity with the western media affords Ms Benazir the opportunity to propagate Pakistan’s point of view in real earnest, India would face real image problems of the never ending kind — at least till Kashmir is free. Ms Benazir has the potential and opportunity, by electing her the people of Pakistan believe that she also has the will.
There are many other issues but the aforementioned require priority attention. For the sake of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif should declare a moratorium on attacking the PPP Government on issues of relative unimportance for a given period of time, Ms Benazir gets a “honeymoon period” to function effectively as PM for the greater good of Pakistan without being blackmailed by smaller parties, independents, etc. Of course, the PML must continue to provide legislative check and balance, but only on issues of grave national importance. In reciprocation, Ms Benazir should refrain from any witch-hunting that is politically motivated, particularly keeping her “more loyal-than-the-Queen” minions in check. One way of mutual good faith would be to choose a consensus person for the Presidential post, that would reflect the true national spirit of both the parties. The Presidential elections thus become the litmus test of sincerity of purpose of the two major political groupings. Will it be consensus or confrontation?
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