The presidential sweepstakes
For the record, Air Marshal (Retd) Asghar Khan went public with his candidature for President first, however it is the incumbent President, Ghulam Ishaq Khan, who seems to be running as hard as he can. This unique achievement of building momentum while seeming to stand still is being accomplished by calling in IOUs gathered over four decades of public service to the nation. A coterie of politicians dissident from the mainstream political groupings, some genuinely elected representatives, but mostly those who made it on party coattails, are beating a steady path to the Presidential doorstep to pledge their allegiance and exhorting him to continue guiding the destiny of the nation for another five years. In the meantime the two major political groupings, the IJI and the PDA, along with the smaller NDA conglomerate of parties have yet to declare their intentions. In general, the vast majority of elected representatives have held their peace. If the incumbent President was not such an experienced hand at political manipulations or did not have the patience of the Sphinx, his silence would have been ominous.
The Office of the President of Pakistan is constitutionally supposed to be neutral as in any country having a constitutional head. It can be occupied by any person, political or non-political who is supported by majority of the elected representatives. In a parliamentary form of democracy, the role of the President is to be a father (or mother) figure who is even-handed in his/her dealings with all their “political children”. On the death of Gen Ziaul Haq, Gen Aslam Beg as VCOAS decided, in consultation with his senior military colleagues, not to go for the obvious route of martial law but to adopt the constitutional course (He now exists as a sorry example to the Armed Forces for having done the correct thing). The then Speaker of the Senate, Ghulam Ishaq Khan, thus succeeded the late Gen Zia as the President of Pakistan. Since the results of the ensuing general elections in November were not conclusive, Ms Benazir had to cut a deal wherein President Ishaq was duly elected by the support of both the major political groupings in the electoral college comprising of the old Senate as well as the newly elected National and Provincial Assemblies. Quiet pressure was used but in deference to posterity, the constitutional exercise was carried out correctly to its democratic conclusion. To sustain democracy, however, the undemocratic “troika” arrangement wherein the COAS became a member of the power structure came into unofficial being.
Given Ms Benazir’s inexperienced youth and the exuberance of the PPP after a long duration in the cold, the suspicions of the Army and the President’s long term plans, the “troika” was certain to fall apart. Without the active connivance of Gen Beg and the Army, Ms Benazir could not have been removed as PM (1990) and replaced by Caretaker PM Jatoi till Nawaz Sharif became the elected PM in November 1990. Whatever Gen Beg may say about Operation Midnight Jackal, the safe conclusion is that Brig Imtiaz, now the Head of IB, took the rap to save bigger heads from rolling. Gen Aslam Beg was in his turn neatly out-manoeuvred out of the “troika” arrangement and went off into retirement in August 1991, with Gen Asif Nawaz hand-picked as a COAS who would “toe the line”. Since Mr Ghulam Ishaq Khan has profitably survived every regime since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, one expected that Nawaz Sharif would be next to bite the dust as PM in 1992 or 1993. However, fate intervened and Gen Asif Nawaz died, the expected removal did not take place. Without casting any aspersion whatsoever on the soul of a simple, straightforward soldier, unfortunately almost all leaders tend to collect around them such a coterie of the un-Godly who have their own selfish “Agendas” which they claim is for the good of the country but in fact really suits their own ulterior motives. In the case of the media-persons, it could even be that their “Agenda” was orchestrated by a motivating foreign agency.
Once Nawaz Sharif was gone, what could have stopped the unscrupulous from propagating that the President was acting out of personal motivation (in dissolving elected Assemblies, first Bhutto then Nawaz Sharif) and having displayed his bad faith, that he should also go? Once elected representatives are removed because of ambiguous constitutional merit, the possibilities for adventurers in the ensuing vacuum are endless. Machiavellian politics was not confined to Ghulam Mohd, Iskandar Mirza, Bhutto or Zia alone (or the coterie around FM Ayub Khan), the talent seems to have been finessed down the years. The forces that combined to elect President Ghulam Ishaq Khan are still in place, but for the moment their support or otherwise is not solidified. Among other factors, the leverage of US influence on domestic politics may seem to have considerably waned on the surface from its peak of 1988 but it will always remain a factor in any third world country, particularly for those on the receiving end of US economic and military aid, the imposition of the cut-off due to the Pressler Amendment notwithstanding.
The PDA, with PPP as its main prop, is certainly antagonistic towards both the President and the Prime Minister, though the President gets more of its approbation because it was he who turned the PPP out of office in 1990 and filed References against its important leaders. In 1991, the PPP turned the National Assembly into a farce on the occasion of the Presidential Address. While its Sindh stronghold has been badly eroded by the late Jam Sadiq, it is still a potent force in all the Assemblies except for the Senate. Recent events point to a rapprochement of sorts with the ruling party but not with the President. While compromises are possible, the PPP will probably either support its own candidate or a compromise candidate along with the IJI i.e. if the IJI decides not to support the incumbent President.
The IJI, bereft of the MQM and the JI, is mainly left with the PML in the National Assembly which in turn is composed of Nawaz Sharif supporters, Junejo loyalists and the heterogeneous composition of elements that tend to support the President. Like Turgat Ozal in Turkey, Nawaz Sharif is a civilian political product of Martial Law with economics and commerce as his main forte and sees himself as the architect of the Pakistan version revolutionary economic reforms and probably wants to emulate Mr Ozal in his ascent to the Presidency. If this is indeed his intention, Mr Sharif is five years too early and his reforms have yet to take hold, they have yet to deliver forth the dividends that the political rhetoric has conditioned us to expect. The IJI would be better served in either supporting the incumbent President and thus maintaining the status quo or looking for a compromise joint candidate to be put up along with the PDA. The latter course is fraught with risk because President Ghulam Ishaq Khan does not take kindly to either opposition or affront as the PPP has found out to its detriment. Even though the References seem to have misfired, being cast out into the political cold has left the PPP in disarray and many of its supporters have jumped ship. People who are corrupt seldom have the character to take on authority so this route of opposing the President is probably a non-starter.
The third major grouping is a bunch of martial law/establishment created politicians, most of whom are sincere but some of whom will sell their souls to anybody for a quick buck. Among them there is a bunch of people who have the potential to be on anyone’s wanted criminals list and are seeking the refuge of the President’s Office by pledging their dubious loyalty. Keeping in mind his respected Office and status, the incumbent President should shun such people, he really does not need them to get elected and if elected with such support, would forsake the confidence of the “Great Silent Majority”.
The Pakistan Army remains a potent force for the election of the President though it does not have a constitutional vote. It has a political clout that belies the normal denials of the military hierarchy with respect to political motivation. Denials of the obvious tends to undercut one’s credibility. On the other hand, Gen Waheed Khan is known to be apolitical and maybe fact and truth coincide in the future, particularly because a vast majority of the Army are professionals who have no political interest whatsoever. Politics has always been confined to an unscrupulous few. It is time for the majority comprising of dedicated professionals to regain their voice for the benefit of the Army as an institution and Pakistan as a country. In observing a strict neutrality in the Presidential Election, the Army will have done itself and the country great service. Democracy enjoins that the peoples’ will is paramount, the Pakistan Army must sustain that will.
One is shocked at the various manipulations that are exposing the utter bankruptcy of our democratic institutions while making a mockery of the concept that the will of the people will prevail. By depriving the masses of the right of directly electing their President, the indirect election by an electoral college is seen to be too fragile to stand upto administrative machinations. This has been seen to helpless effect in some of the elections to the Senate, particularly in the period before parties were permitted to operate in the post-martial law period. With due respect to most of the members of the Senate who could always get elected directly in any exercise of adult franchise, a significant minority have become Senators based on their financial clout. It is no secret that in both Houses of Parliament, some elected members are suspected to be involved in drugs smuggling, a demeaning allegation that needs to be scrupulously investigated and disposed of if found frivolous. While money can also be applied to win elections held on adult franchise basis it is much more easier as an influencing measure in the case of an electoral college.
The President of Pakistan should have a non-controversial image of having diligently served the people of Pakistan selflessly in the years leading upto his election. He should have an unsullied reputation for honesty, integrity and impartiality. The electoral college could possibly be used to elect two possible candidates from among a slate of probables, having satisfied themselves about their character and past history. These two candidates should then be pitted against each other in an exercise of adult franchise so that the people of Pakistan do not feel shortchanged because of the greed of their elected representatives who may sell them out. We must consciously move away from the selection process to the directly elected means of choosing our principal leaders. The essence of democracy lies in the sanctity of the direct vote in matters of great importance. In Pakistan as history has shown, there is nothing more important than electing a good President.
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