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The reconciliation process

The PPP’s Long March of November 18, 1992 was the symbolic low-point of Government-Opposition relations during the Nawaz Sharif Regime. In keeping with normal Pakistani practices there was over-reaction on both the sides. Unfortunately for PPP, while their logistics (and media targeted histrionics) exercise to “storm the National Assembly” and bring down the government by the force of street power was taken by the public generally as excess, fortunately for the Government their commensurate excess in trotting out an overwhelming show of force was tolerated by the public as a necessary deterrent in keeping the public peace. By ensuring a massive police turnout and plentiful supply of tear gas, police firing was avoided by the Government. That effectively shut out the use of the “dead body” card, a useful though macabre mechanism in the third world to keep the political momentum going. Without that particular ingredient, the PPP strategy stood exposed as being bankrupt. When the people are not willing to support change, no will can change the government of the day. Even extra-constitutional measures e.g. martial law, dissolution of the assemblies without valid reason, etc can seldom be normally sustained unless it is backed by the popular will.

When you take matters to a head and fail to succeed, there is bound to be a reaction. When boxers fail to connect with their killer punch there is usually a short unbalanced period when the opponent can take advantage. Most political leaders are used to “the loneliness of the long distance runner” and keep a steady pace, in sprinting at an inopportune moment they are liable to tire themselves out of the competition. In light of what we know today of Ms Benazir’s medical condition, we are wiser about why this untimely confrontation was hurriedly forced by the PPP in November. To compound it, for the first time in two years in the cold, the Opposition is facing a crisis because of a political initiative rather than coping with normal bureaucratic measures, political action being chosen by the IJI as the best expedient to counter Ms Benazir’s Opposition. This has caused severe dislocation and disarray within the ranks of the PPP who are accustomed to being subjected to administrative high handedness and were thus taken unawares by the IJI ploy. Regimes usually rely on bureaucratic shenanigans to sustain their rule. Ms Benazir’s acceptance to be the Chairperson of the Foreign Relations Committee of the National Assembly gave the tacit and de facto recognition to the very assemblage she was (and is still) decrying as illegal. There is disillusionment among her PDA allies on her “solo flight” as well as the first general murmurings of discontent within the party faithful against any Bhutto, evoking rather shrill and vehement denials about a “deal” being struck between the PPP and the Government, not made easier by the face value of the coincidence of Asif Zardari’s release on bail and his departure for London. The PDA (and NDA) leaders have a sour taste in the mouth at thus being seemingly used for an individual and selfish purpose. A strong, vibrant Ms. Benazir could have easily put paid to such rumours, unfortunately she has gone through a complicated pregnancy due to an erring gall bladder and has had to undergo a Caesarean for a premature child birth. With Ms Benazir hors de combat the field is thus left alone for the IJI’s blade runners. Given such pleasing political circumstances, the IJI’s various factions seems to be reverting to doing their normal thing, trying to cut each other’s throats. This is particularly true of the group that has no real electoral standing and have relied on bureaucracy or martial laws to prop them up, they tend to support the President, mostly without his reverse blessings. However, with the Presidential sweepstakes imminent, this faction, within and outside the cabinet, has a revived purpose in life, having suffered the ignominy of being ignored and sidelined for over 2 years.

The sun may be shining on IJI because of a mixture of circumstances and the hand of divine Providence but it is mainly due to the fine hand orchestrating a complicated game of chess where through a combination of boldness and bluster, carrot and stick, the IJI has got the better of PPP in the most serious political crisis during its regime. This has been a remarkable test of will that has shown the strength and depth of the IJI leadership, a very pleasing display of capability and teamwork in a country that has so little experience a la democratic institutions. The main reason for the present IJI success, apart from the PPP’s own blunders, is that though they are split into three main factions, the Nawaz Sharif group, the Junejo Loyalists and the Presidential Cabal, man for man they have a better grouping of individuals serving the nation and frankly it shows. Take Sartaj Aziz at Finance, Malik Naeem at Commerce, Sardar Assef Ali at Economic Affairs, Fakhr Imam at Education, Malik Abdul Majid at Food & Agriculture, Raja Nadir Pervaiz at Water and Power, etc, etc. The galaxy of leaders includes Mohammad Siddique Khan Kanju, a man who has developed in stature and become a superb Foreign Minister (of State) in a short period of time, a refreshing change to the previous Mandarin-types that has been the fashion for over a decade. An affable person, totally devoid of arrogance, Siddique Kanju is approachable and amenable to new ideas.

The person to whom most of the credit for the present sunny standing of the IJI must go is Ch Nisar Ali Khan, easily the most outstanding young political person in Pakistani government circles in decades. Blessed with a basic humility, candour and a pleasing personality, his approach to issues is extremely pragmatic and politically inspired. As Minister for Petroleum he has ensured that his Ministry is one of the best run with an untarnished reputation for honesty and integrity. In his role as Special Assistant to the PM, in charge of the PM’s Secretariat, he has decisively affected the political course in Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif, to his credit, superseded first brother Shahbaz and allowed Ch. Nisar to function as virtually Deputy PM, the overall impression is of an effective teamwork under the PM’s leadership that allows Ch Nisar to work as an authoritative political and administrative coordinator and political mediator. In the first instance he has kept the various factions of the Muslim League, particularly the Junejo faction to whom most of the better quality of ministers belong, persevering in their loyalty to the PM. PPP’s Aitzaz Ahsan could have emulated the Ch Nisar potential for PPP but unfortunately whiz kid-types are taken by the PPP leadership as possible threats to their authority and while tolerated, Aitzaz is hardly trusted, somewhat frustrating for a man of some talent and depth. Nawaz Sharif is much more self-confident about his position and has shown a remarkable tendency to encourage leaders like Ch Nisar without worrying that they are threats to his throne. First brother, Shahbaz, is round but exercises a much lower profile than during the first few months. Having shed the “family only” syndrome effectively PPP, Nawaz Sharif is well served by the dedication and sincerity of Ch Nisar and most of his cabinet colleagues. Many of the regime’s gaffes have been overcome by Nawaz Sharif’s chief trouble-shooter, and giving the government the quantum of enduring effectiveness that any leader needs at that level in running the country.

The PPP’s Long March and the aftermath have been vintage Ch. Nisar. In this he has no doubt been helped by good information, many others are due credit which they cannot take publicly. To confront the threat, he willingly became the focal point of the IJI’s response, with his neck on the chopping block if he had failed. His strategy was a classic political carrot and stick ploy that would have done Clausewitz proud, the stick first and the carrot later. The first order of the day was to have an overwhelming show of force as an effective deterrence, long on tear gas and batons but bereft of police bullets. Having shortened “The Long March”, he did not go around denigrating the PPP or its leaders publicly or indulging in a round of victorious chest beating, rather he straightaway set out peace feelers, the olive branch extended from a position of strength rather than weakness. Continuing a dialogue with his political counterparts in the PPP, Ch Nisar went for the jugular vein in a sophisticated manner, laying out a concession as a bait on the outside hope that “the fish would bite”. With due respects to his political sagacity, one does not think that in his wildest fantasies he would have imagined that Ms Benazir would herself accept to Chair the Foreign Relations Committee of the National Assembly. He probably hoped that if the PPP nominated Iftikhar Gilani, this would be a symbolic movement towards burying the political hatchet between the IJI and PPP. When Ms Benazir walked into the Committee Room and accepted the role in National Assembly affairs by becoming Chairperson it was like a bombshell, the gamble succeeding far beyond its intended objectives. By accepting to be a symbolically significant part of the Parliamentary process Ms Benazir effectively undercut, internationally and domestically, the foundation of the PDA’s diatribe about the legality of the present National Assembly and in extension, the Nawaz Sharif Government. The Regime has been quick to capitalize on this unexpected windfall in a sophisticated rather than the usual crude manner. While Ch Nisar must have ultimate ambitions of his own, he has amply proven that he is not driven by the “young man in a hurry” syndrome and his dedication is sincere, not overwhelmed by ambition. This patience is a necessary attribute of good leadership. To Nawaz Sharif must go the credit for having gathered around him a committed inner circle, a mechanism that takes a lot of load off his shoulders and allows him to go around looking and acting Prime-Ministerial. A leader who aspires to head the government may or may not be exceedingly cerebrally smart, he must definitely have smart and dedicated people around him.

The maturity of the IJI’s political leadership will be tested in the follow-up action post to the recent successes. Will the Government fall prey to exploiting Ms Benazir’s first faltering steps towards amiability or use it as the fore-runner of events of wider ramifications leading to a reconciliation on national issues, thus strengthening the national fabric? When one looks at the PPP beyond Ms Benazir, people like Aitzaz Ahsan, Aftab Sherpao and Farooq Leghari are visible but unfortunately the images of the PPP’s Jahangir Badr-types muddies their political cloak. Ch Nisar may physically be an unlikely Atlas to the IJI edifice but he stands out as one of the leaders of substance in the IJI closet though one must hasten to add that loutish Jahangir Badr-clones do lurk in the background as uninspiring symbols of political bankruptcy. Both the parties need to purge their upper hierarchy of those who prefer confrontational politics, complete with abuse, as the most potent part of politicking. While many do believe that the PPP supremo leader has struck a deal with the government, it is perhaps more true to stake that no individual deal was perhaps intended, individuals are being overtaken by events that are happening on a natural course and most of it is positive. For the institution of democracy in Pakistan this has been an invaluable course of events. It is for the government to exercise discretion and not add to Ms Benazir’s discomfort by allowing speculation individually damaging to her to gain any currency, instead they should encourage her down the road of national reconciliation by shunning the language of abuse and confrontation.

Despite our natural tendency to frequently shoot ourselves in the feet, a genuine national reconciliation process may be in the works. Ch Nisar has followed the route of political sagacity, choosing to “honouring while you strike him (or her) down, the foe that come with fearless eyes,” unquote. Maybe we can go forward from here to genuine national dialogue between the country’s two main political groupings leading to the economic and political emancipation that our people desperately need. Off course, those who have their own individual interest at heart rather than the national cause will always try to sabotage reconciliation of any kind as that would, according to their perception, undercut their foundations.

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