The long march
Newton’s third law of motion seems to apply to all governments in Pakistan, the present incumbents are not remaining in power because they are strikingly more capable or deserving than the others, the Opposition simply lacks the ability to change the present state availing. Unable to give impetus to their desires to unseat the Government through peaceful political means, those who love to hate the present government have banded together to declare another Long March on Islamabad. The last time around during the Coop Scam campaign, as the head of the caravan reached Jhelum, a controlled panic had swept some circles in Islamabad, till today nobody can come up with a satisfactory explanation why Ms Benazir called for a “time out” to fly off to Paris. Without that charismatic figure, the threat faded into the countryside.
Much more organisation seems to have gone into staging of the event this time. To drum up public support, the PDA leaders have been journeying far and wide, they have now named Wednesday November 18, 1992 as the target date for the Long March, the idea being that processions from all over the country would converge on the Capital and perform a mass protest sit-in in front of the Parliament Building. A pre-march rally at Liaquat Bagh in Rawalpindi has been scheduled to be addressed by the PDA leaders, all this is supposed to pass off without the disturbing of the peace. As usual, there are some implied tall claims by the Opposition that the President and the Army are giving them tacit support by not interfering with the “democratic” process, the support does not seem to be exactly discernible, more of a wink and a nod seems to have been rendered to the organisers of the March.
One hopes that the Opposition will not begin to believe their own rhetoric about the Long March passing off peacefully. There is no earthly chance that such a demonstration can be staged without confrontation. As much as the PDA leaders must be wanting that they should succeed in their objective of bringing a huge mass to bear at a pressure point, the government in power is hardly going to sit back and allow that pressure to overwhelm them. In their anticipated reaction, confrontation being quite predictable, lies the basis for trouble. They will discourage the assemblies of people by controlling the flow of population to the Capital, first at the point of origin, then by the screening of public and private transport, establishment of road blocks, etc and if all that does not succeed, protesters will be physically detained at key entry points and/or dispersed by good old-fashioned riot control methods. This is a sure-fire way of exciting the crowd and tailor-made for agent provocateurs who would be more than inclined to turn the situation to their advantage by creating conditions leading to anarchy.
It is in the constitutional and moral duty of both the Government and the Opposition to keep the national interest supreme, it is also in both their interests to avoid confrontation by entering into dialogue that will lessen the growing tension in the body politic of Pakistan. The incumbents must understand that their failure to listen to the genuine grievances of the Opposition has brought them to such a desperate strait that they can only resort to such means that will almost certainly result in violent confrontation. The resultant conflagration will further damage the socio-economic environment and discourage entrepreneurial investment at a key transition period in our economic life. In essence, whoever are the winners will have a Pyrrhic victory, the celebration being a ritual macabre dance of greed and ambition by a few individuals who are ever ready to sacrifice the future of this nation for their own selfish ends, indeed hold it hostage to their avarice and myopia.
In such a situation, the role of the members of the “power troika” becomes not only important but a subject of cynosure, especially in view of the broad hint being given by the Opposition that they have managed the Establishment support in sending Nawaz Sharif out into the political cold. Given all the circumstances, this is hard to believe. It is hardly imaginable that the President will make a U-turn on the PPP having thrown them out barely 27 months ago. Having gone to the Courts in filing References against Ms Benazir and her Cabinet colleagues, the President would face a serious credibility problem if he were to turn to Ms Benazir. Whatever the paper dressing, the PDA or NDA is more of a “dinner and debate” forum without that charismatic figure. However, it is in the President’s interest, whatever his public posture may be, not to annoy the Americans, indeed it may be in his supreme interest to have an interlocutor to stay the perceived censure of the incoming Democrats. So the President’s best bet is to have Ms Benazir in the Government, but not in a position to call all the shots i.e. a National Government headed by someone pliable and acceptable to both the parties, also a liberal face in the changing world environment. The President may not be able to carry off the dissolution of the Assemblies again without being affected himself, so the best prospect for change is from within i.e. a revolt engineered within the ruling party, which then under a new leader, with an obviously truncated majority bereft of Nawaz Sharif-loyalists, turns to the Opposition and invites them to form a National Government. At this stage the scenario can go awry, the Opposition may decide it has a far better chance in a snap election and may decline to support the “rebels”, throwing the country into a constitutional crisis that can only be resolved by going to the electorate. While there could be some changes, because the power of incumbency may not be as total with the present Government as they had with Jatoi’s Caretakers and Jam Sadiq’s fine hand is not around in Sindh to change PPP’s overwhelming mandate, there does not seem to be a possible clear-cut win for either side, net result will be a hung Parliament. Fate continues to conspire in favour of the Last of the Mohicans, Ghulam Ishaq Khan may well manage a pliable National Government “in the national interest” that will also ensure his re-election as President.
Efforts are being made to somehow involve the remaining part of the power troika, the Army, into the political controversy. The present Government may well be justified in calling out the Army in Aid of Civil Power if the Long March degenerates into a law and order problem. The question arises, at what stage is the Army likely to be called in? If the Army is called in to stop the Long March itself by establishing road blocks that prevent entry into Islamabad, it may well be accused of partisan politics by attempting to stop a democratic right to protest by the masses. On the other hand, allowing the processions to converge on Liaquat Bagh and then become a frenzied mob hell bent on reaching Islamabad may mean that running battles may well ensue in the urban areas of Rawalpindi and Islamabad between law enforcement agencies and the marchers. While the 1979 US Embassy fire scenario is too far out a possibility, the Salman Rushdie affair in 1989, when precious lives of innocent bystanders caught in the crossfire were lost, comes to mind. The Army may well find themselves in a no-win situation, damned if they will and damned if they won’t. The COAS has handled other such crisis with maturity in the past, a proven track record of coolness under pressure should be significant plus-point on November 18 to preserve the Army’s credibility.
Gen Beg, the former COAS, has spoken about giving the Army a constitutional role in place of its present unwritten position in the power troika. As much as one respects Gen Beg’s role in ensuring a return to democratic rule in Pakistan and the trial balloon about the expanded role of a National Security Council (NSC) floated during his incumbency as COAS, this is a suggestion that at this stage could have been avoided as it is totally contrary to his professed (and proven) democratic inclinations. As a citizen he has every conceivable right to express his views but as a former COAS, more so because he is the immediate predecessor to Gen Asif Nawaz, his words convey weight and may be taken unwittingly as a stalking horse for the Army, the intelligentsia and masses taking it for granted that his views are representative of the Army’s feelings, perception being stronger than fact. This makes the position of the COAS and the Army untenable and draws them into an avoidable political controversy. Being a mature and intellectual person, it is incumbent on Gen Beg that he moderates his expression of such sensitive issues for some time. The Army’s constitutional role is well defined and it does not need to follow the “Turkish Model”, that role is effective only when it remains unwritten and undefined. If corruption among the politicians and the civil administration becomes endemic then the Army may well conclude that the violation of the spirit of the Constitution while acting in its name is so rampant that the paper Constitution is being used only to protect criminals and the Army is being used as a Praetorian Guard for and by vested interests to continue their nefarious activities. When criminals function in the name of justice, justice becomes a crime!
Those in power never see the writing on the wall until it is too late, the Nawaz Sharif Government may be in trouble but it is still calling the shots. Some of his Ministers are of an above par quality, some deserve to be sent back to serve the constituencies they claim to represent. The present Government’s economic reforms have been outstanding, the implementation of some facets could have been handled by less controversial personalities, certainly the privatisation process has only been intermittently transparent. On balance, the performance of the Government has been good in comparison to their political predecessors. It is in the Province of Sindh mainly and Balochistan to a lesser extent that constitutional government has almost ceased to exist as such and the Federal Government does not have the answer to support its nominal allies, mainly because the present system cannot adjust to realities on the ground. Nawaz Sharif must see the writing on the wall and take the lead in forming a National Government while he still retains the initiative of the incumbency. The Long March will be a battle that the Opposition may not win, in fact the Opposition may not win any battles, but the Government will eventually lose the war. Success of the Long March may make that into a permanent political weapon, an extra-constitutional bugbear that every political adventurer may well try to use. To the Opposition one can only advise, given the greatest of provocations keep the Long Marchers under control, lest the situation turns into anarchy. To the Government one can only advise, do not be like the wind which cannot read.
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