Crossroads and Consensus
Heralding in the 1990s, Pakistan has reason for hope, predictions of an early demise for democracy have been (sic Mark Twain) greatly exaggerated. We are in a period of intense politics, our two major opposing groups vying for supremacy, an unyielding force meeting an immovable object, both failing in the attempts to unseat the other in the electoral power bases, important for democracy in Pakistan that this was as it should be, at least for the first year. While the constant testing of people’s support may be a good thing after a decade of autocratic rule, “horse trading” has become a shameful part of our political pantheon.
The first item on the agenda should have been for various political factions to persevere with the essence of democracy, allowing democratic institutions to flourish. While debate must be passionate, recriminations must not have the rancour of life and death. Taking up positions on constitutional sleight of hand invites third force intervention, entirely unwelcome to the masses if the situation slides from bad to worse. Essential to the survivability of democracy must be strict adherence to the rule of law, as much the responsibility of the government as it is that of the opposition. Genuine political leaders seldom need to bend laws deliberately, unfortunately their political and administrative underlings do, pursuing their own personal and criminal vendettas, misusing their positions of authority at will as if there are no tomorrows. The tragedy is that individual and/or mass frustration at rank injustice recognizes only the culpability of political leadership, who when subsequently boxed into a corner because of their flunkies’ misdeeds, may become (in a Catch-22 situation) unwilling and unwitting accomplices to misdemeanours galore out of misplaced political loyalty. This scenario has been played out so often this century that it has lost further novelty.
One remembers the early eloquence of Ms Benazir’s better political appointees, the Kennedyesque Aitzaz Ahsan, his passionate explanations about the “Reference Points” that led to the disintegration of the rule of law in the last decade. The appointment of a practicing, successful (and credible) civil rights lawyer as the Minister of Interior was an important milestone in any third world as it brought the state’s police apparatus under seemingly legal aegis, unfortunately the police-state apparatchik have a hydra-headed monster’s aptitude to resurface and blight all promises made, the roots of malfeasance runs deep causing grief and resentment. Those in danger of being publicly exposed as corrupt and/or inefficient may react more often than not by turning to close relatives/friends in organisations like the FIA, using their vast administrative and across-the-board legal powers to witchhunt, putting the “Catcher in the Rye” so to speak, a harassment capability, the common knowledge of which may horrify the Honourable Interior Minister who must assume responsibility as the buck stops on his desk. Those are the “Reference Points” that PPP or any other political government, be it the IJI in Punjab or the Coalition in Balochistan should watch out for and maybe even fear, ruthlessly stamping them out. Among other things, we understand that agencies like FIA have powers whereby they can question anyone, search any premises, take any documents without a magistrate-authorised search warrant. Above all, they need not tell you why. If so, then what are our fundamental rights under the constitution? And why villify Martial Law? Probably the only other agencies in the world one can remember that had such powers were Hitler’s Gestapo or Honecker’s Staasi or Ceausescu’s Securitaate, among others.
Victimisation for monetary gain, or blackmail, under seemingly political cover, is a mundane enough subject when compared to the historical geo-political opportunities offered to our youthful and dynamic leadership across the broad political spectrum. Fast unfolding events beyond our making have thrust our leaders into an enviable historical position, for them political fortune beckons as never before in the history of Pakistan. As political changes in Eastern Europe have shown, the internal dynamism of a nation does not need outside support, sooner or later the oppression gets to the masses and once saturated with repression they react, so it has been in East Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, etc. More important the inner Soviet Empire is in danger of crumbling. In a short but effective ONE-TWO Gorbachev went on a well publicised PR exercise to Lithuania (in the Baltic States he cannot afford to take any military action out of fear of offending western sensibilities) which had all but seceded from the Soviet Union, impressing the masses (and the western media) with soft words and beguiling platitudes, subsequently he used the pretext of inter-communal tension in Armenia and Azerbaijan to crush protest in primarily Muslim Azerbaijan (Azeris being expendable), with made to order (for western media attention) raves about Islamic Fundamentalism (and Shia extremism). This was beautifully stage-managed, the poor Azeri just walked into the trap leading with his chin. Gorbachev’s action was designed to keep the rest of the Soviet tottering empire in line, restraining recalcitrant deviants by a SHOW OF FORCE. While the west never ceases to pontify about Tianenman, people in Baku being killed by the hundreds were dismissed as “rumours” emanating from a “justifiable” Soviet military action. History will analyse Gorbachev’s many faces, Azerbaijan (and Afghanistan) only symbolizes oppression with a human face, in any case how long will he last?
The winds of change sweeping the world are about to effect Pakistan economically and politically. In economic terms, Pakistan must prepare for drastic reduction in western aid, it is a drug we have learnt to live with, whose suspension will cause severe withdrawal symptoms. The western countries (and Japan) with USA in the forefront are gearing up a new version of the MARSHAL PLAN for Eastern Europe, the THIRD WORLD will shortly become last in the list of would-be western donors. Down the financial road we will have to learn to live within our means, not a bad thing in itself. Among all the third world countries, Pakistan is perhaps the most fortunate, it has the hidden economic strength that is the envy of others. With its inherent food autarky, a well-trained manpower pool and vast reserves of raw material necessary for an even economic growth, Pakistan has great economic possibilities. The question is how to exploit this excellent potential in a sophisticated manner, even the basic consumer shortages of Eastern Europe e.g. soap, toothpaste, etc are available in plenty and easily supplied by us. While some of our economic planners may be in a state of utter panic because of what they perceive to be impending economic apocalypse, we feel that shrugging off the yoke of foreign debt and economic emancipation (living within our resources) is good for the country. For the short term there will be severe constraints on our economic situation, even a negative growth perhaps, in the longer run we will be that much better off on self-reliance.
In the geo-political sense there are historical opportunities that need to be exploited nearer to home. Eastern Europe has opened up the aspirations of people everywhere, freedom has become a catching disease, nearer to home the Kashmiris have come alive and thus are dying by the hundreds due to Indian bullets. A homegrown revolt can never be subjugated, while Indian protests about Pakistani direct involvement are a pipe-dream, how can India on the other hand expect our emotions and sympathies to be contained? Pakistan does not need to do anything except get united domestically in the total political sense, nothing will be more satisfying than indications of some moves to that end by our leadership across the broad political spectrum. We anxiously look forward to genuine rapprochement, when the chips are down our political leadership must show its true class, one common front in a situation fraught with danger to the nation, a common answer to all comers, an emotional rock that will be a great succour to the Kashmiris.
While those with better knowledge of the prevailing situation in the government and political mainstream are the best judges of the course to follow, the situation is rapidly getting a life of its own, so that anybody second-guessing the alternatives would invariably be correct. The Kashmir valley is aflame because of Indian obduracy, not Pakistan interference, India is following a dangerous path (of forcing confrontation) by laying the blame at our doorstep. By trying to repress an independent nation by brutal military action, the first escalation on the road to independence has been taken. In this context we must adopt the stance of realpolitik, while avoiding a general conflict with India should certainly be one of our objectives, a strong supportive stance towards Kashmir needs to be adopted politically. When the entire will of the nation is thus manifest, the people of Kashmir will have the succour and sustenance to carry themselves to freedom from occupation.
What structure the political leaders give to their mutual cooperation is best left to them to sort out, studying variables one expects they will come to the right accommodation, a national consensus remains the imperative of the hour, we are at a crossroads of sorts in our history. In a military sense we have an immense advantage, India`s imbalance in Kashmir and Khalistan (Indian Punjab) has created favourable opportunities, as guerilla activity intensifies it will lay wide open the Indian Lines of Communications for future organised interdiction. Our strength lies in having a deterrent in the form of a strong and motivated Armed Forces, even the less than sane minds in India could hardly champion war with Pakistan without cause or motivation, we must not be rushed into any action at this time. On the other hand, our Armed Forces, particularly the Pakistan Army and the Air Force, have recently gone through well publicised manoeuvres (Ex Zarb-i-Momin) which creates in essence critical local superiority at sensitive geographical locations. If push comes to shove the Armed Forces are ready and willing, no Pakistani Head of Government has had such a favourable political and military situation as Ms Benazir, she must skillfully use her Foreign Policy Mandarin, Lt Gen Sahabzada Yaqub Khan, to gain political advantage in the region without fighting a war. With broad political support in the nation (and the region) bolstering her position, she must drum up international support for the JUST CAUSE in Kashmir, make each move deliberately, but without waste of time. Any apparent hesitation on her part will spell domestic political disaster for the PPP.
A free Kashmir is now just down the road, freedom can be achieved without bloodshed if we go the route of political maturity internally and externally. In 1962, when India attacked China across the McMohan Line and suffered severe reverses over the whole front, then gentlemanly President FM Ayub botched up a golden opportunity because of western restraint and his sense of fairplay. USA and UK persuaded India to have wide-ranging negotiations with Pakistan on Kashmir at that time, but subsequently India just played for time before putting an end to further discussions, in short we got suckered! The Kashmiris are presently dying by the hundreds (and will continue to do so), while the valley burns how long can we continue to fiddle with our conscience?
We are at a historic crossroads, for the future of our nation and the generations to come we now need a strategic consensus, within the country and externally.
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