The honeymoon is over
In the US, the new President has an unofficial 100 days which serves, for want of better word, as a honeymoon. In normal circumstances, this would have been an ideal period for a new government in Pakistan to find its mooring but because of the “90 day syndrome” and its mixed connotations for Pakistan, fate decreed that the Government of Ms Benazir Bhutto has had to face crisis of sorts almost from the word “go”, not the least of them being that the financial cupboard is bare.
Ms. Benazir has a number of “firsts” to her credit, being the youngest head of Government and the first female in the Islamic world to be PM, but as Pakistanis we are more concerned with her record sheet than her place as a statistic in a record book. During the last 60 days not much water has flowed under the bridge, but the PM has tried, despite the paucity of skilled talent available within her political inner circle, to come to grips with the manifold problems facing Pakistan. Conventional Wisdom-Newsweek Style (CW) demands that we take stock of the situation with a predilection for the future, the past being left to posterity to dissect in its own mysterious ways.
No real measures have been taken to come to grips with the economy as yet, the interim Federal Budget designed to sustain the process without upsetting the apple cart. An IMF negotiating team has been here for the past week or so and it is expected that they will try to tone down some of the more harsher measures which had acquiesced by our “international bureaucratic job-seeker” (and new-found political genius) in his last days as Finance Minister. Nero fiddled while Rome burned and except for the fact that our guy is lousy around musical instruments, his performance was synonymous as the economy crumbled around us. The PPP Government have literally been left holding an empty bag and unlike magicians they cannot dare come up with rabbits, symbolic or otherwise. Any IMF concessions would be beneficial for the people of Pakistan despite our economic plight needing a welcome respite from rampant inflation, widespread unemployment and a stagnant industrial climate. While being absolutely correct about the dire need to control non-developmental expenditure, perennial budget deficits, resorting to heavy bank borrowing to meet public expenditures, etc, stiff measures would resort in widespread dissatisfaction, leading to possible anarchy as a populist government struggles keep up with its electoral promises. The IMF conditionalities suggested are not extraordinary in the circumstances, in the present conditioning of the Pakistan psyche to live it up today at tomorrow’s expense, it becomes unduly harsh, a more step-by-step approach with a gradual tightening of the belt being the more appropriate requirement.
An analysis of the appointment of Ministers and Advisors (not to talk about Federal Secretaries) is usually a fair measure of the potential and direction a political party will take in government. The PPP regime has brought in a mixture of party loyalists (political and bureaucratic) and technocrat talent. In all senses of the word this has been a mixed blend, real talent being somewhat in short supply. Without casting aspersions on anyone particular, some of these gentlemen are Prima Donnas without any ability whatsoever, falling over themselves to project themselves at public expense or at the expense of their mentor, Ms Benazir, on whose Kameez-tails they have reached exalted rank and position. One is reminded of a movie phrase made popular during the filming of “Cleopatra”, viz “the way things are going we would not like to see Elizabeth Taylor playing Cleopatra but Cleopatra playing Elizabeth Taylor.” However, one decent thing about public life is that lifelong phonies living off other’s ideas are soon exposed for what they are, characterless loud-mouths in love with their own voices and without depth or substance. Salutary exceptions are always there like in the appointment of people like Maj Gen (Retd) Nasirullah Khan Babar and Maj Gen (Retd) Imtiaz Ali as Advisers in various coordinating capacities, the former known to be very decisive, the latter being extremely effective. After Ms. Benazir, Aftab Sherpao is perhaps the PPP’s most glittering political star, giving a virtuoso par excellence performance in the NWFP that has kept the PPP’s credibility as a national party intact. While the IJI faced a rout in Sindh in the General Election and were in somewhat disarray in Balochistan, Sherpao’s political translation of a PPP minority into effective government gives the PPP a boost at the Federal level much beyond the normal clout that a provincial government in NWFP would carry.
The PPP-MQM Accord is in serious danger of falling apart in Sind. This is not due to lack of sincerity on the part of either the PM, the Sind CM or the MQM hierarchy, it is simply a reality emerging from unreal expectations. Though the MQM demands are quite justifiable, they are simply not redeemable by any Sindhi Government. Neither good faith nor perseverance on the part of the leaders alone will help the “odd couple” in politics, it is sacrifice from the masses on both the sides, which the extremists are not about to accept, particularly regarding the repatriation of stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh. For whatever reason, this makes good political capital, unabashedly exploited by even the most sane elements, in the circumstances the only option left for those whom the voters may have left in the lurch, sinking in the wake of Ms Benazir’s Sindh sweep. The very reason that makes the PM nationally cohesive, the destruction of the Sindh secessionist factor, rises Phoenix-like as a hydra-headed monster threatening to destroy her national credibility at a most inopportune moment. All and sundry must show great understanding and a sense of sacrifice at this crucial juncture in our history, any abdication of a sense of responsibility or immaturity will have grievous repercussions, long-term and without solution in the future.
Luckily for everyone, the Balochistan crisis is almost resolved, the verdict of the High Court in Quetta was very clear and unambiguous, restoration of the Provincial Assembly. With Jamali out in the cold and Barozai, the Speaker, having resigned, the major players of the Government hijack are now bit players on a larger stage dominated by disparate political forces, their wide political spectrum an insurance for positive nationhood. In a way, the Provincial Government-to-be will have the widest representation of most political forces in Balochistan, most welcome for the masses in having some say in their administration. As expected, Akbar Bugti, chosen as the Parliamentary leader for the BNA-JUI-IJI Grouping, should form the coalition as the CM. He has open lines of communication with the PPP hierarchy and an amicable Federal-Provincial relationship is in the offing with hardly any reason for confrontation. The PM got a rousing reception during a short trip to Quetta and this again bodes well for national unity.
We must try to put the Prof Rashid episode behind us, it was an aberration that should have been avoided, better in place in a fascist society, certainly not to be associated with a democratic society or democratic traditions. That it happened was certainly unpardonable, though prudence could have been shown in praising late Gen Zia in front of a hostile audience. The Federal Minister present should certainly have resigned and a clear signal to avoid recurrence of such public intolerance can be shown by the PM by sacking this gentleman (1) for the incident (2) for not resigning over the incident. Ethical standards or a moral sense of responsibility are not strong qualities among our political mores but the incident should not be allowed to fester as it will affect the PM’s power base in the Punjab. Guns being pointed to remove films from cameras recording the incident is also not a happy augury for democracy, the foreign guests present could not have gone away with any comfort at the advent of unadulterated freedom.
The industrial peace is breaking down despite the efforts to maintain balance in the re-emergence of unions. Populist slogans should not inspire sabotage of expensive machinery purchased with hard-earned foreign exchange, Asian Food Industries have been the target of such a vicious attack that it is affecting Karachi’s SITE area, having a domino loss-of-confidence effect in adjacent industries, with the industrialists appalled at the prospect of seeing their investment destroyed by such “guerilla” tactics. How can you expect any investment from business circles in such an abominable climate? While labour unions have a decidedly positive role to play in developing the economy of the country because they protect genuine workers rights, the tendency of unions to be militant to the point of terrorism deprives the economy of the confidence necessary for the business community to invest. Scurrilous, baseless complaints are being made to the PM’s Secretariat, having no substance to sustain their credibility, soon it will become a racket, a means of lucrative commercial blackmail and whatever the PM’s men and horses may do, the industrial egg will soon become an irretrievable omelette. Economic uplift is not possible without genuine participation by the business community in industrial output and further investment. Rhetoric may draw in a few believers, discordant union activity will drive intending entrepreneurs to the hills. Ms Benazir must take positive steps in restoring the government’s sincere intention to maintain industrial harmony by sifting spurious demands from genuine requests and controlling such political activists to whom anything is good enough excuse for dissent and protest, the protest being much more violent as time goes on. There must be deterrent punishment given for false allegations, the punishment fitting the crime being alleged. If anything there will be a sharp fall in paperwork in the PM’s Secretariat, even the separation of fact from fiction.
Many people feel that the Centre-Punjab Government tussle is destructive, on the other hand it is also very competitive, a boon for the masses. As long as ethical standards are not violated and personal attacks avoided, particularly the extremely libellous attacks by both the sides, forgivable maybe in the heat of an election campaign, the very fact of contentious relationship keeps corruption under the fear of public exposure. The nature of political dissent is extremely acrimonious in Pakistan, particularly the distortion of facts for public consumption, at public meetings. Maturity demands that argument should be result-oriented and constructive rather than simply opionated and given to destruction.
With Soviet troops in Afghanistan poised to make a classic clean withdrawal, the Soviet Foreign Minister is heading for Islamabad on Feb. 4 to try and get some comfort from the negotiating table in contrast to the humiliation on the battlefield. Unfortunately reality is now in the hands of rebel commanders inside Afghanistan, Pakistan or the Peshawar-based Mujahideen leaders having little or no influence of further events in and around Kabul, so Shevardnadze will get no joy in Islamabad and in spite of our protestations, Pakistan will serve as a convenient whipping boy to vent Soviet frustrations. How well Ms. Benazir’s government conveys our growing helplessness to the Soviets, while maintaining a balancing act with our former Afghan proteges, will determine the level of terrorism and acts of sabotage within Pakistan.
This is a tough period. During the last 60 days Ms. Benazir has shown significant physical and mental endurance in keeping with the demands of effective government, testing the limits of human forbearance. For male-chauvinists of varying degree this should serve as an eye opener. The PM needs to consolidate as the going gets tough, it is only then that the tough can get going. For whatever it is worth, she has had a honeymoon of sorts, as the by-elections results have shown, it is now over.
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