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Transition

The people of Pakistan managed to pleasantly surprise not only themselves but the whole world. They took part peacefully in free and fair elections sending a strong message for change, without resorting to the normal third world penchant for violence. Not a complete mandate perhaps, but certainly giving legitimacy to the process of democracy. As discordant the voices have been over the past three months, it has been heard sufficiently in chorus now for power to be transferred to the chosen head of the elected representatives of the people, Benazir, who must now become our Prime Minister. The people have spoken, let us not be craven anymore and forfeit the chance she has earned by dint of charisma, long suffering and sheer hard work. The baton must pass and it must be done cleanly, it being important that the changeover should be swift and effected with grace. Delay would lead to suspicion, suspicion to adventurism and so on. We have been that route before and a repeat would not be fair to the people of Pakistan. It is time to close all dark chapters, to look ahead with hope for the future.

Certainly some of the results have been mixed. The largest province of Punjab has been virtually tied. Nawaz Sharif, a relatively political neo-phyte, deserves unreserved credit for sufficiently uniting the opposition to the PPP in a manner that a simple majority was denied to them in the National Assembly, on the other hand it is important for the process of democracy in Pakistan that he makes the important telephone call to Benazir without further delay. Like Benazir he has youth on his side and has now been tested in political battle, let it not be said that he did not rise to the occasion to show the people his real mettle, the courage that accepts defeat with grace, deferring to the wishes of the people. By denying PPP an overwhelming mandate he has already done yeoman’s service for democracy, a strong opposition is the surest check on latent dictatorial urges, one of the hangovers of the headiness of power.

There is a bright side to Benazir’s prospective regime and in all fairness, whatever political colour or creed, one must look at this aspect as a nationalist. Never in the history of Pakistan has there been any personality, political or military, who has acquired such universally favourable coverage by the international media. For Pakistan beset internationally by hostile media attention, Benazir provides (Cory-like) a great political credibility at a crucial moment in our history. There will be a “honeymoon period” which needs to be exploited to create a permanent goodwill for Pakistan internationally she must not squander this precious asset. Her late father got as much, if not more, mixed nature of comments as did Gen Zia, mostly adverse, during their respective lifetimes. With a unanimous vote of confidence from members of a normally cynical international fourth estate, she starts with positive assets on the slate which in years to come will be extremely important for Pakistan.

In one single electoral blow, she has destroyed the separatist tendencies in Sindh. The secession factor will rear its ugly head from time to time but her mandate in this province has been so overpowering that one can breathe easy on that score. This by itself is a great singular achievement for national unity. She has a sufficient majority among the masses of Pakistan’s biggest (and much maligned) province of Punjab to allay mutual suspicions. In a sense her claim of being national leader has great relevance for a country full of centrifugal forces and extremist passions. All true patriots will surely recognize that this represents a God-given chance to get Sindh (and the other smaller provinces) into the mainstream of Pakistan’s life, back from an isolation which one daresays has been was somewhat self-imposed and self-inflicted, other than being creepingly destructive for an ideological nation.

Small, but well-united, the MQM cannot be denied their place under the sun anymore. Adversity and rank parochialism have brought them together to represent the crucial swing bloc of 13 seats. More than the seats they represent, they sit astride Pakistan’s economic life-line as it passes through Sukkur, Hyderabad and Karachi. Their leaders have to look at the future with the same maturity they have shown in their progression from being a local body into a national force, their youth belying their experience in the streets. They must translate their electoral power into effective share in the government. It is extremely important that this be done not only for national reasons but also for the benefit of the united populace they represent and in whom all their hopes are conditioned.

Much is being said about the future role of the Pakistan Army in national politics. Basically this is much ado about nothing as the rank and file are as good citizens of the country as any. The Pakistan Army has always gone with the will of the people, albeit in differing conditions each time, that is why all our coups have been bloodless. Only when the perception of national choices has been stark, the outlook universally atrocious, that the army has resorted to extra-constitutional means. All our coups are replete with the same refrain, Ayub’s removal of Iskander Mirza, Yahya toppling Ayub, being in turn seen off by Gul Hassan, ending in Gen Zia’s move to unseat Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. One can debate the premises endlessly – and the consequences – to Kingdom come, but one cannot resile from the fact that this national army operates from a national viewpoint. The army’s apprehensions will be patriotic instead of self-serving, the stance towards the Russians in Afghanistan, the acceptance or otherwise of Indian hegemony in South Asia, etc. On these counts Benazir has not missed a single step uptill now, her pronouncements being more than satisfactory, given her support from the Punjabi heartland, any other position would be politically suicidal. While we cannot expect her to continue her father’s crusade against India for a thousand years, her instincts must be in the national interest while striving for equitable accommodation. On the other hand, her positive assets are her all round credibility among the comity of nations, giving her diplomatic clout useful for garnering economic and military aid without strings. She will be an effective anti-dote to the adverse international media propaganda orchestrated by the Indians. We particularly suffer because of the suspicion whether we possess the nuclear bomb or have the prowess and knowhow to make one. It would be dangerously naive for her to make a unilateral pronouncement of abstention from military use thereof in the face of India being a nuclear power. She must look at all the intelligence we have on Indian nuclear ambitions before making any commitments on the matter, this may later erode her international credibility. Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto cannot do otherwise as we cannot afford to be Finland-ized, Sri-Lanka-ized, Maldives-ized, etc. Caution demands that she understand that any unilateral action without reciprocity will ensure an extremely short shrift for her as leader of Pakistan. Barely 15 years ago her father promised to eat grass in order to get a nuclear bomb to counter the Indian Bomb.

Blame most of it on charisma but Benazir’s popularity is not derived from having blue eyes, it is because of the socio-economic aspirations of the people and in their perceptive belief in her promises to make their lot better. She will have her work cut out for her to translate promises into deeds. She has intelligently exploited the people’s perception of being abandoned and forgotten in their struggle for a decent and honest livelihood. Our penchant was for issues other than economic over the past decade, no attention being paid to the people’s basic needs and their aspirations. Populist slogans have to be converted into reality and the easiest method is to reverse the process of nationalisation instituted by her father. Investor confidence is extremely necessary to revive the economy. Her PPP supporters idolize her and will accept any changes she proposes, her IJI opponents cannot oppose denationalisation. Nawaz Sharif’s Ittefaq was one such target in her father’s socialistic heydays. Nationalisation simply created wealthy bureaucrats and sick industries. A wise economic move would be to free the economy to have the least amount of checks and controls. If she has to, she should nationalise bureaucracy, that is make them accountable to the people and the nation and not to themselves alone. If her party goes to Islamabad and decides “if you can’t beat them, join them”, we have had it. There is no other national leader in Pakistan capable of inducting accountability into the process of government and have the solid will of the people backing her to enforce it.

One of the major problems facing PPP will be the relationship with the Senate, which having been chosen by the previously dissolved Provincial Assemblies, will not truly reflect the revised aspirations of the people, acting as an unnecessary hurdle for the Coalition coming to power. It would be in keeping with the fresh winds blowing in democracy to dissolve the Senate once the new National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies are in place – and then hold elections for the Senate based on adult franchise. The fact that President Ayub Khan’s basic Democrats could not be trusted to honestly elect a National Assembly or a President holds true for the present mode of election to the Senate. Honourable men are in the Senate, many of whom would get elected on their own merit in a direct vote. A desirable method could be to have a slate of candidates from each Province, each candidate proposed and seconded by either a party or at least one Provincial or National Assembly member belonging to the same Province. The people can then vote for the slate on a Provincial basis, with the same formula for Islamabad and FATA. Elections to the allocated seats may be in order of priority of the number of votes cast by the whole electorate in each Province. Separate balloting may be done for technocrats on the same formula.

A weak coalition is in the works. Contrary to established thought, this is excellent news for the country because a vocal and strong opposition would mean that the dictatorial urges of the various personalities in the Ruling Party will be kept in check. At the same time, the democratic process will evolve, not because someone in authority has autocratically willed it, but because the people so desire. When the political government is formed, Pakistan will be the better for it because the perception of freely choosing their own representatives to represent them in the National Assembly is psychologically important for the people of Pakistan. To that end, the mood is definitely upbeat and the expectations high. All attempts to cause hiccups in the process must be definitively stamped out. Ms. Benazir’s inherent charisma and widespread popularity has been amply demonstrated and would suffice to overcome the Conservative populace’s deep-rooted suspicion of PPP’s long term intentions, particularly because only segment of the vocal element in the PPP are really LEFTIST. The PPP has never been a Leftist Party, though it has intermittently had pink plumage, having known left leaners among its previous hierarchy, the LONE RANGER Shaikh Rasheed, having also lost his seat. Benazir has to transform herself from being the leader of the PPP to the Prime Minister of Pakistan and that includes the IJI, PAI, MQM, ANP, JUI and whatever else. In a sense the whole of Pakistan, personalities included, will be going through a period of transition. Some of us may like her personally, may have not liked her father, like what she promises, hated the memories of PPP in the middle 70s (in almost a fascist plumage). One respects her for the deep filial allegiance she gives to the memory of her father, both as her father and as a national leader, but she has to rise above personal emotions and separate the two, to have learnt her lessons from her father’s horrendous mistakes, to reinforce his successes with word and deed, particularly in awakening the consciousness of the masses and bettering their economic existence. The elections was the easy part, to ameliorate the lot of the masses from the present economic doldrums will require some doing, there being no socialistic short-cut solutions to this, all solutions are capital intensive and there lies the difference in political substance that her father preached and the contrary pragmatism that she must follow.

There is an insignificant motivated section of the intelligentsia and the elite who have been exposed for being political non-entities in this last exercise of adult franchise, whether by abstaining or taking part. These non-electable few are now spreading extreme pessimism about whether the President will ask Benazir to form the government and whether it would be wise. The President needs to stay on the right track, confident that the chosen representatives will form a government that will not forget the roots of its existence, the welfare and comfort of the people of Pakistan. We have had a cataclysm in 1971 because we did not trust the party with the major share of elected representatives to form the government. In some respects it is tragi-comedy and a role-reversal that the PPP at that point of time was a minority party and attempting then what IJI is trying to do now. This has potential of becoming a gruesome replay of an irreversible catastrophe. Though the circumstances are dissimilar, some of the overtones and connotations are similar and we must not let history repeat itself.

Very few men get a chance to create history. The President has more than persevered in going straight as an arrow, it would be a tragedy if he now blew it. While we are ready to accept that Nawaz Sharif probably could not get through to Benazir because of bad telephone connections, the President should use the excellent facilities at his disposal to ask, without delay, Benazir to form the Government. Therein lies the salvation of democracy in Pakistan.

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