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A chance to make history

The Nation’s Headline of Tuesday, May 31, 1988 had former Prime Minister Junejo saying that “Gen Zia’s action was arbitrary but constitutional.” Annunciating the essential difference between a politician and a soldier, Mr. Junejo salvaged some of his pride in a dignified response. The moral of the exercise is that nice men seldom make effective leaders, given a difficult country like Pakistan to govern. It is still too early to write the political epitaph of this decent human being, given the fact that he had begun to show sustained flashes of being effective. He is a resilient character and will certainly play a part in the future in Pakistan’s troubled political chapter, some of his chameleon colleagues notwithstanding. The threshold of political morality is extremely low, in Pakistan even more so.

The President spoke of his determination to hasten the pace of Islamisation. Fundamental to Pakistan given acquiescence from the different sects, it is self-explanatory, self-defeating only if a particular point of view is sought to be forcefully imposed upon a minority. Detractors will note a consistency in that Islamisation has been Gen Zia’s central theme since 1977. He also spoke of (1) accountability (2) law and order situation and (3) economic emancipation.

An alarming law and order situation bordering on near anarchy has to be the first priority. The appalling state of Karachi coupled with the dacoity menace in Sind has brought us to the brink of economic apocalypse. Without various political nuances cramping his usual style, Gen Zia needs to come to grips immediately with the problems complicated further by arms/drugs smuggling and illegal refugees. Colonel Otto Von Skorzeny said that “Politics is the soldier’s curse” admonishing that a fair and tough-minded approach does carry with it short-time unpopularity but also the inherent seeds of future respect not immediate or effervescent, but deep and distant, a lasting legacy. The deepening economic malaise to which we are presently being subjected can only be addressed by effective leadership. In all fairness, one cannot lay all the blame at the doorstep of the Junejo Government but the buck stops somewhere and Mr. Junejo had a clear option to resign if he felt hamstrung in freedom of action or if the bureaucracy failed to execute his orders. Now that Mr. Junejo has succeeded in becoming a non-person, a discerning population will watch the actions of the President closely to identify solid measures to contain further deterioration and curb lawlessness with an iron hand. The Great Silent Majority of the populace, invariably conservative in nature will support any ruler providing peace and harmony and is the President’s natural constituency. A strong show of force on the perpetrators of disorder will go a long way in uplifting the present morale of the people. The effectiveness of the present arrangement will be assessed by the results achieved in restoring internal peace throughout the troubled land. One of the happier observations of May’s “Sunday Afternoon Massacre” was the absence of the Army from the streets of Pakistan, its non-appearance extremely symbolic. The possibility of non-utilization of the Army for purposes of quelling civil disturbances (or movement in anticipation thereof) augers well for the future. The PPP’s scheduled procession in Karachi on May 30, the very next day highlighted a mature self-confidence on the part of the administration conducive for the development of democracy. Instead of relying on patchwork arrangements composed of police, para-military forces and the Army, one hopes that the “powers that be” will have read “A case for Federal Guards”, THE NATION, May 24, 1988 and create an effective intermediate force. Only a substantial improvement of the internal situation will create an investment climate suitable for a much needed economic emancipation.

The next priority is certainly economic uplift. The man in the street is usually pretty gullible and is fed with a blizzard of optimistically euphoric statistics, but the ultimate comparison of what it costs for him and his family to make a living dictates the way he perceives things are with the economy of the country. Analysts have to deal with the theories of economics annunciated by raw statistics but the vagaries of life’s inadequacies in practical terms can rarely be identified on paper but are easily expressed in the form of bare emotions by venting one’s frustrations in the streets of a city e.g. stone throwing, car burning, etc. The people of Pakistan are more interested in the business of economic survival and Elections 1988 will accurately reflect this as the most important of all issues, the rest is mere window-dressing and pales in stark comparison. Their preferences will be honed by the gathering darkness at noon in their pocketbooks and their perception of who is best able to either uplift them out of the malaise or at least keep it from becoming even worse. The happiest man in Pakistan at the moment is probably former Finance Minister Mr. Yasin Wattoo. Uneasy lies the head of the peron presenting the Budget of a third world country and he does not have only a stay of execution but a total acquittal. One can only make educated guesses at what the proposals are likely to be this year, given the deep economic malaise but freeing the economy from bureaucratic tutelage should be a high priority for Dr. Mahbubul Haq. That people died in the streets to get the SUZUKI budget did not unduly concern the more callous among our bureaucrats who had devised the repudiated Budget in the first place, to them body-counts do not matter. The hapless public can only look askance at any innovations. The crux of the matter lies in an effective reformation of the taxation system and getting the agriculturists to pay their due share, both of which remain in the realm of wishful thinking. However, unless this happens, balancing the Budget in any third world country without resorting to additional taxation is a known impossibility. The poor people who are the ultimate FALL GUYS are usually not proclaimed as the ostensible source, though in a slight of hand they usually bear the major burden of taxes indirectly imposed, innovation style. Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) has a devil-may-care attitude towards any situation and fluctuations in its share prices is governed only by the extraneous elements of a burgeoning black economy, a parallel force sustaining Pakistan’s financial credibility. In rising after May 30 they have given a vote of confidence in Dr Mahbubul Haq who had made the beginning of an innovative scheme to sop up black money but in his temporary departure from the Federal Cabinet (and an extended one from the Finance Ministry) due to political reasons in 1985 matters had gone into a steady decline. In addressing the issue of mobilising resources before attempting to balance the budget he may opt for an effective multi-track policy that (1) encourages black money owners to whiten their hoard (2) carries out broad reformation of the tax structure (3) tightens up controls for collection of taxes (4) imposes strict financial discipline on the government departments and public sector Corporations. Above all he must take positive steps to FREE the economy by taking it completely out of the stranglehold of the public sector which functions as an all pervasive strait-jacket. This should include allowing private investment banks to function immediately, a callous delay that has caused unscrupulous investment companies to surface, clean out gullible investors and disappear. Far reaching changes in the trade policy unencumbered by vested interests are necessary to rejuvenate the economy. Prime must be control of the COMECON (and SUKAB/KEMIRA OY) Barters and prudent use of Countertrade (particularly OFFSET mechanism) and Special Trading Agreements (STA) as the cardinal principles of the State’s trade policy. The bureaucratic controls exercised on industrial development is suited to benefit the already rich (the FAMILIES syndrome) besides the lining of deep bureaucratic pockets at every conceivable level and is totally counter-productive to any form of economic progress.

The President gave statistics of the public’s appeal to him on the issue accountability through various forums. The lasting legacy that Gen Zia can leave for the nation is if he can effect accountability without disturbing the election process and sustaining it beyond that period. Lip service must be treated as a palliative of the past and the President must set the tone by bringing to book concrete examples of malfeasance irrespective of the status of the person. Starting at the top of the scale will create (1) examples of some significance and (2) encourage the honest people to do their task without fear. The democratic process ensures that dishonest elected representatives be replaced by other elected representatives by the electoral process and not be supplanted by our “tried and trusted” bureaucracy which has to perform honestly and overtime under strict control of elected representatives. At the moment the bureaucracy is on one long tea break interspersed with turkey shoots on the public coffers. While there exists a suggestion of corruption and inefficiency being condoned there is no hope for improvement of the infrastructure of society. Systems can only be solved when we honestly attempt to stop a public servant from committing a misdemeanour and can bring him to book thereof, making it an exceedingly costly affair for him. Such checks and balances in the system will provide for correct revenue generation. It is no use simply saying good riddance to bad rubbish and sending an individual home to look after his ill-gotten gains. Behind him he usually leaves the nucleus for further criminal intent, contributing to degenerating the infrastructure of our society. This debilitating effect is responsible for the cumulative shortfalls in general revenues across the board in many ways more than one. It is stupid to convict a Head Constable for a Rs:100 bribe when such incorrigible rascals (like the Chairman of a public sector Corporation who refused to sell his status symbol BMW for one full year in the face of the PM’s Suzuki-riding orders) rob the country of billions regularly and go scot-free into benign retirement. Let us not sing “The Budget Blues” while the onus of responsibility lies squarely on us for not bringing such rascals to book. The process of accountability and the impartial WILL with which the President enforces it will determine the legacy of what posterity will analyse.

History seldom gives second chances but Gen Zia has a unique chance to make positive history instead of resorting to the normal third world gambit of concocting it. The buck has stopped firmly on his desk and fittingly he has publicly acknowledged it by selecting the immediate AIMS. Among the causes that he has taken up cudgels for, priority has to be economic emancipation of the masses which can only be achieved through maintaining with single minded devotion and sincerity the AIMS selected. The alarming apathy among the masses to the sacking of the political government points to a dire need of economic rejuvenation. We are still tottering at the brink of economic apocalypse and drastic measures are needed to reform the system to assuage the necessary economic needs of the people and ameliorate their present sorry state. Gen Zia has an innate sense of destiny and has now a solid chance to make history. The President will honour his commitment to hold elections within constitutional parameters and there should be no reason to doubt that these will be held. The agony of it all is that if he fails to do the right thing by us, the people of Pakistan will end up paying for it through their noses. Whatever may be our political creed, the economic well-being of Pakistan demands that all of us ensure that we do not forfeit our continuing date with destiny. The depth of character of a nation’s rulers are reflected in the destiny of a nation, which in turn is translated into history. We can do our part by encouraging the President to fulfil his constitutional obligations and not go for cheap popularity by political theatricals as some of our articulate political neo-phytes are desperately trying to do.

As someone has said, “Fame is a vapour and riches takes wings — in the end what endures is character”.

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