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Dangerous games (Or leave Sindh alone)

People never learn from other’s mistakes, they almost always have to learn from their own. While the 20 months of PPP rule was a class study in both aspirations raised and disappointments faced, it was to be expected that Nawaz Sharif’s IJI lot should have taken measure of Ms. Benazir’s mistakes (made and/or attributed) and set a safer course through the political minefield of Pakistan so that the institution of democracy is not threatened.

A military maxim emphasizes that one must, while (1) in defence, hold on to your vital ground and (2) in offensive, capture the enemy’s vital ground. While in Opposition, the IJI did just that, realizing that Ms. Benazir was in trouble in her stronghold in Sindh, which has been Pakistan’s soft underbelly for the last decade, they went on a broad political offensive to capitalize on the shortcomings of her Provincial government. The IJI took away the urban areas by weaning the disgruntled MQM away from the PPP-MQM Accord, providing cause for sporadic ethnic tension. The IJI then concentrated on the disaffected elements within PPP, increasingly frustrated by a succession of weak, malleable Chief Ministers, puppets in the hands of a shadow-ruler with a totally different manifesto. The Sindhi politician is not unlike other politicians in many Third World countries, or even most developed ones, he lives and thrives on political favours of various kind, bereft of which his loyalties tend to be suspect. He is extremely sensitive about his ego and pride, unlike other politicians he will seldom swallow it for any length of time.

Ms. Benazir would still have been ruling Pakistan if she had the political sagacity to keep her Constitutional base in Sindh firm. In 1988 she had swept away the extremists and assuaged the national fears of a possible Sindhi move for succession, the need for a firm hold over Sindh was thus force-multiplied. Unfortunately for her, there were forces within her own inner circle over whom she had no control. Charismatic and articulate, Ms.Benazir had the makings of a first rate national leader, with the added advantage of tremendous international recognition. She shot her credibility by not putting her own house in order (and still cannot do so). Her undoing may be her loss as an individual, it is Pakistan’s loss as a country, the nation made no profit out of her potential. Experience out in the cold may serve to enhance her political maturity. The local media, particularly the English newspapers, leaned towards her — and why not, during her reign there were no known instances of recrimination or discrimination against the fourth estate, in contrast to the threat laid out over open sights the other day in the disaster that passed by the name of a Media Seminar in Islamabad. In the face of real and imagined stories, particularly those that hit close to home, Ms.Benazir contributed immensely to the newly incepted national Press Freedom, initiated cautiously by former PM Junejo, by simply keeping her cool. Ms. Benazir did have media personalities that were aberrations surrounding her, but by and large there was an open dialogue contributing immensely to the consolidation of the institution of a genuinely free Press.

Ms. Benazir blindsided her political instincts by succumbing to extraneous pressure of the vested kind. To maintain hold over Sindh, she had two clear choices, viz (1) Makhdoom Amin Fahim (or Makhdoom Khaliquzzaman) as Chief Minister with the support of Jam Sadiq Ali or (2) Jam Sadiq Ali as Chief Minister, knowing that, among others, he would have the unstinted support of the House of Hala. The common denominator remained Jam Sadiq Ali, who had returned from a decade-old self-imposed exile in London. Jam Sadiq Ali has been compared to late Mayor Richard Daley of Chicago by Ayaz Amir, on the contrary one believes that Mayor Daley could not hold a candle to the Jam. There is a difference between Chicago and Sindh, for one Chicago never had problems of the magnitude Sindh has. Jam Sadiq is perceived as a Saint and Satan rolled into one, depending upon what he perceives to be detrimental or supportive of his interest. This Jam Sadiq is different from the Jam Sadiq of old in one salient point, as Chief Minister Jam Sadiq is not answerable to anyone and he seems to be coming to grips with his destiny with a sense of dedicated purpose, his ambition seems to be to leave a name in Sindhi posterity as a great Leader, a Leader of ethnic tensions and a scourge of recalcitrants. With the loss of Karachi, Ms. Benazir faced an economic disaster, with the Pucca Qilla catastrophe she had a major political problem on her hands that left no conciliation possible for either of the parties. By posturing defiantly, she herself became a party to the conflict and thus the hardening of extreme positions.

The first and foremost priority of Caretaker CM Jam Sadiq was to get elected, the second being to restore law and order in the urban areas of Sindh. After his election to some extent he has been successful. The spate of kidnappings and dacoities has lessened considerably because of excellent, coordinated action by law enforcement agencies (LEAs) against hardened urban criminal gangs. Above all, there has been no ethnic disturbances in Sindh for over 9 months, the Army, visible perennially in all the urban areas of Sindh over the last decade, has not been called out even once in Aid of Civil Power in this period. As the pickings became lean in the urban areas and the ante went up, the criminals shifted their operations back to the rural areas where things have gone from bad to worse, which cannot now be controlled except by coordinated military action to support contemplated moves by local police. Armed gangs have rapidly proliferated in number (between 25 to 30) and size (numbering between 60 to a 100) individuals. Some have even started recruitment through applications which are vetted by a “Selection Board”. For Rs.10,000 per month for life for any son killed, many poor downtrodden families are ready to risk and sacrifice a scion. These gangs may become nascent guerilla groups (they are armed to the teeth with sophisticated weapons, have radio communications and modern camp comforts including TV and VCR’s run by generators). The Armed Forces cannot sit by and allow things to deteriorate further, in conjunction with the Government of Sindh, immediate action is necessary before they become revolutionary bases of the Latin American kind, Mexico being famous for Zapata-type movements. Rather than facing demonstrators over open sights in the streets of Karachi and Hyderabad, this exercise of “search and destroy” is more to the taste of the Defence Services. The sooner it is carried out, the sooner things will be put onto an even keel in the interior of Sindh.

What is of concern is that Nawaz Sharif’s Government has not taken heed of the reasons that led to Ms Benazir’s present woes, the necessity of keeping Sindh secure. While Speaker Gohar Ayub is to be commended for bringing about the IJI-PDA Accord, leading to the return of PDA to Parliament and thus contributing to consolidation of democratic institutions, he has unwittingly set loose forces that may spell the doom of the IJI Government. While Nawaz Sharif is given to great rhetoric about what he believes in and what he wants to do as leader of a democratic government, he would not be Prime Minister today if Jam Sadiq had not spirited Sindh away from the stranglehold of the PPP, one daresays by using the same means that the PPP once enjoyed. Nawaz Sharif’s position is not that much different from that of Ms Benazir as PM in 1988, tremendous majority in his home province, patched up coalition in others. If Jam Sadiq had not brought in Sindh, the IJI could not have ruled Pakistan without an allied Provincial Government in Sindh. On taking over as Caretaker, Jam Sadiq’s only aim was to come back to power through the ballot box, to accomplish this he had to bring different political forces together in a disparate coalition to keep PPP out in the cold and he did that — but only just, politics making for strange bedfellows. In August 1990, PPP was the dominant force in Sindh, by October, barely three months later, the PPP was fighting to hold its own. Six months later still, the PPP may not be a spent force but it is in total disarray, the major families having bolted to Jam Sadiq or maintaining open lines of communication, a display of politics beyond compare! The Jam had to restore the security environment in the cities by bringing to a stop the ethnic disturbances that had bedevilled Karachi, bringing this fair city to the level of Beirut. MQM was a national partner to Nawaz Sharif in bringing Ms Benazir down, yet MQM remains a Provincial party, confined to the urban areas of Sindh, commanding a sizeable (but minority) bloc of urban votes in the Sindh Provincial Assembly but having the political power to paralyse Karachi, the economic capital of Pakistan. Without a secure environment, private foreign investment, the vision of Nawaz Sharif’s contemplated economic emancipation programme, will remain shy, a distant dream. Anyone who aspires to successfully govern Pakistan has to come to terms with the political force MQM represents. For better or for worse, anyone who wants the Government in Sindh to remain allied to the Federal Government has to ensure that the ethnic Sindhis and the MQM abide peaceably as one entity. On the other hand, the MQM cannot afford to be in the Opposition anymore, it has to be part of the national mainstream, whether it is the IJI or the PPP. These may not be palatable facts, these are the only facts that matter, political detente out of political expediency. Any leader who chooses confrontation is either mad or worse, totally deranged. No one has shown these traits yet except perhaps those who recently sought to exacerbate the prevailing tensions within MQM itself and help the process along, hoping that MQM would self-destruct, ceasing to be a potent force. Altaf Hussain has aired charges of a Federal intelligence agency being part of the conspiracy, one hopes this is not true. If true, this must be the most tragic political fact of the present time, of an attempt to use an axe on one’s own political feet. If true, Altaf Hussain’s grievances are not his alone, the destruction of MQM may short-circuit Jam Sadiq’s coalition but all the President’s men will not be able to put Nawaz Sharif together again. One of the appointments Ms. Benazir should not have made was that of Rao Rashid as Adviser to PM for Establishment. While no one doubts Rao Rashid’s competence, he engaged into a vendetta which bordered on the personal and caused a debilitating confrontation with the majority province of Punjab that the PPP as the Federal entity should have best avoided. This was an internecine conflict of Rao Rashid’s making that did not serve the party or his leader’s will. In Nawaz Sharif’s case, the appointment of a retired Army person as Head of IB is becoming increasingly controversial, a continuation of the Rao Rashid Syndrome when a competent individual is prone to striking off at a tangent without any relevance to the overall aim. The IJI was brilliantly created overnight as a breakwater to stop the Benazir wave in 1988, it would be callous to ignore the contributions of some individuals to Nawaz Sharif’s coming to power, but given the rumours of dissatisfaction even among the Armed Forces hierarchy at what is suspected to be a reflex penchant to create intrigue and mischief, letting such a person run riot would be an unwise step.

Inter-agency rivalry may be a common event among all intelligence communities, the real danger is that the ISI and MI may be estranged from the IB to an extent that may not be conducive for smooth information flow to the head of the political government. For the sake of the greater national good sometimes one has to make some sacrifices, Nawaz Sharif has to decide whether it is worth it risking his political future out of a sense of loyalty to one specific individual. On the other hand he also has to surround himself with those that he can trust to the core. Unless the gentleman is working on someone else’s long-term agenda, Nawaz Sharif has to depend upon him, in effect it is a Hobson’s choice.

Gohar Ayub’s intercession at this time, howsoever altruistic his political motives, has become suspect. Unfortunately MQM’s forefathers do not have happy memories of Gohar Ayub during the Ayubian era, such suspicions of motivated interest could be tragic. Gohar Ayub is the respected Speaker of the National Assembly, matters pertaining to Sindh Province should be the prerogative of reference to Abdul Razik Khan, Speaker of Sindh’s Provincial Assembly. The motive of Gohar Ayub to bring the PDA back to the National Assembly may be laudable, if it succeeds in destabilizing the present Sindh Government, Nawaz Sharif’s Government won’t be tottering far behind. There are some wheels within wheels here, by the time the spinning is done, the political roulette might have been programmed to throw up a new national leadership.

Jam Sadiq has his own internal problems, the recent reaction attributed to the MQM on the media must have severely embarrassed him. As a political entity of the National and Provincial Governments, the MQM cannot afford to be seen to be party to violence against the Press, even if the provocation was grave. The going off on the deep end by MQM cohorts has, by insinuation if not in fact, made the Sindh Government an accessory to malfeasance. The Press have tasted unrestrained freedom, the dangling shackles of perennial Fascism is not likely to be taken by the media lying down. The media has reacted by highlighting anything and everything that detracts from the IJI Government, the Sindh coalition partners in particular. The Senate elections are always a cause for horse-trading, if the rules are contrived for supposedly democratic elections by a selected few, any election will become a horse auction. Down on the ropes, the PPP talked of mass MPAs kidnappings, ultimately reduced the number to 5. Whatever the reason, at least three PPP MPAs did not turn up at the final count, their movement could well have been restrained — but by whom?

Jam Sadiq’s Adviser on Home Affairs is Irfanullah Marwat, the President’s competent businessman-politician turned strongman son-in-law. If the MPAs were really restrained, then as Jam Sadiq’s Chief Hit-Man, it was his job to do so. In effect the Speaker’s intercession ultimately ends up pointing a finger close to the President, even if Jam falls by the wayside, is that the real aim? Why indeed does Nawaz Sharif need PDA at any cost in the National Assembly or is this simply another profound display of the Masada Complex? Pakistani politicians have a Roman penchant for falling on their swords. There is something in the air and Jam Sadiq may not be the only target. In such circumstances, the rumour mills do go berserk sometimes. Take this one for size, Lt Gen Asif Nawaz Janjua, the present Army CGS, and the rumoured odds-on favourite to be the new COAS, is a Sandhurst graduate originally belonging to 5 Punjab (Ayub Khan’s famed Sherdils). Gohar Ayub is a former colleague from Sandhurst and also a 5 Punjab man, even a close friend. Strike a resonant chord, anyone? Sheer nonsense, of course! His Excellency Nicholas Barrington, presently Her Majesty’s High Commissioner to Pakistan, wrote a confidential manuscript when he was in Pakistan 25 or so odd years earlier as a Junior Staffer in the British High Commission, about how Pakistan’s top 100 families were all from the all encompassing umbrella of the same family tree. It seems Jam Sadiq does not belong to this elite club, so in effect this could be the start of a potential Blackball.

Sindh has enjoyed a long period of 270 days of peace in the urban areas, the problems in internal Sindh are not political but due to criminal activity. Political disturbances may require a caring hand, criminal action requires firm, ruthless reaction by the LEAs. Unless the political head of Government is a tough man, reaction will remain a theoretical lip-service exercise. For the moment, Jam Sadiq has shown commendable political astuteness by pulling different political groupings onto one platform while bringing the fear of God into criminals who were hell-bent on holding the Province to ransom. The Jam may not be a Thomas Jefferson, but in Sindh today he is all we’ve got, the common denominator being that the PPP had him but didn’t use him but Nawaz Sharif has utilised his services to good effect. If we are looking for Utopia, then of course the brand of Jam Sadiq’s politics of hardball does not conform. Incidentally Utopia also does not countenance political sleaziness specializing in double dealing either. The hard fact of life is that the urban areas of Sindh look on Jam Sadiq as a saviour-of-sorts, a tainted saviour perhaps (he would perhaps find it insulting to be labelled a Saint), nonetheless good for the economy because by bringing peace to the troubled city of Karachi, the Stock Market’s volume has trebled positively over the last 3 months.

Nawaz Sharif should avoid becoming a party to the playing of dangerous games. We lost the finest political potential to emerge in this country because she fell victim to shenanigans and greed of her political aides and inner circle, Nawaz Sharif’s economic outreach has been a great breath of fresh air, this may all simply come to naught. Ms Benazir must be gnashing her teeth at the radical economic reforms now being enacted, most were on her drawing board, but she just could not free herself to execute her plans. Sartaj Aziz has gone beyond our greatest hopes, confirming that when an honest individual is provided with an opportunity to effect changes, he will do so without fear or favour. There is a strong momentum here, Nawaz Sharif should not be sidetracked by issues that have been innocently raised for that ultimate particular purpose of derailing him. As Ceaser realised, too late, they can only get to you who can reach under your strong right arm.
Sindh is well on the way to recovery. The fact that the Armed Forces are not on permanent standby to come in Aid to Civil Power in urban area is a relief. Operations against the dacoit gangs in the countryside should be taken up by fresh units being rotated every month. The Armed Forces will have to keep the dacoits on the run in the countryside, otherwise we are going to have more Japanese-type kidnappings and Swede-type killings, as it is the taboo against harmony of foreigners has been broken. The answer lies in positive action, now that the political structure is now well in place. Unless criminals understand the ultimate consequences of their continued activity, unless those who provide them safe sanctuary and logistical supplies understand the punishment for their continued collaboration, there will be no respite. The answer does not lie in drawing room intrigues but in driving implications home.

There is a time and place for everything, if Sindh were like the Punjab Province of today, Jam Sadiq Ali would probably be hopelessly out of place. In fact the personal tragedy for the Jam is that if he can bring Sindh around to all-encompassing peace, the Chief Minister would probably be hopelessly misfit, out of place in a crisis-free situation. Of greater concern to those sworn to his allegiance is the state of his personal health, it remains precarious for a man of his age to be subjected to such a strenuous regimen. Governing Sindh is not easy, in slang one can say it must be taking the mickey out of him, though he seems to enjoy it. If someone has a credible alternative to Jam Sadiq at this time, please do name him. If not, let’s go by the old American saying, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!”.

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