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The water accord

The Accord on the apportioning of Indus River waters between the four Provinces is an important watershed for the people of Pakistan, marred only by the fact that it took more than half a century to decide this issue. Since 1935, many Commissions have been formed, the Akhtar Hussain Committee made a serious effort by making a submission on June 30, 1970, this was still-born because of the dissolution of One Unit only a day after. The Justice Fazal Akbar Committee, constituted in October 1970, never saw an official light of day because it was considered to be his individual views rather than that of any consensus. Justice Fazal Akbar estimated existing water at 104.24 million acre feet (MAF), with another 8.56 MAF available as utilisable surplus, making for a total of 112.80 MAF. The Commission headed by Chief Justice Haleem of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, constituted in 1983, estimated water availability at 112.73 MAF, an unconsequential difference.

Justice Fazal Akbar had recommended 52.66 MAF for Punjab (37.35 MAF for Kharif and 15.31 for Rabi crop). For Sindh, he had recommended 43.79 MAF (33.64 MAF for Kharif and 10.15 MAF for Rabi crop), for NWFP 5.09 MAF (3.23 MAF Kharif, 1.86 MAF Rabi) and Balochistan 2.7 MAF (2.22 MAF for Kharif and 0.48 MAF for Rabi). He recommended a 40:40:13:7 ratio formula for the utilisable surplus of 8.56 MAF, bringing Punjab upto 56.08 MAF, Sindh 47.21 MAF, NWFP 6.21 MAF and Balochistan 3.3 MAF. In 1985 Justice Haleem recommended 54.49 MAF for Punjab, 43.04 MAF for Sindh, 3.09 MAF for NWFP and 2.11 MAF for Balochistan of the total divisible pool of 102.73 MAF, stipulating that 10 MAF surplus utilisable water be divided on a 37:37:14:12 formula between Punjab (3.7 MAF), Sindh (3.7 MAF), NWFP (1.44 MAF) and Balochistan (1.2 MAF), the cumulative total coming to 58.19 MAF for Punjab, 46.74 MAF for Sindh, 4.49 MAF for NWFP and 3.31 MAF for Balochistan. Punjab gained at the expense of NWFP and Sindh in the Haleem Commission. On the other hand because of the lack of consensus, an ad-hoc formula has been in place since 1970 based on which the Provinces have been drawing water. The total divisible water being estimated at 105.25 MAF, Punjab has been drawing 53.94 MAF, Sindh 44.09 MAF, NWFP 5.63 MAF and 1.69 MAF for Balochistan, the formula for available surplus being at 37:37:14:12.

The present Accord has estimated the available water (including utilisable surplus) at 117.35, an increase by 4.60 MAF approximately compared to the estimates by Justice Akbar (112.80 MAF) and Chief Justice Haleem (112.73 MAF). 55.94 MAF has been given to Punjab, 48.76 MAF for Sindh, 8.78 MAF to NWFP and 3.87 MAF to Balochistan. Punjab LOSES 0.14 MAF (Akbar formula) and 2.25 MAF (Haleem formula), while all other Provinces GAIN, Sindh 1.55 MAF (Akbar formula) 2.02 MAF (Haleem formula), NWFP 2.57 MAF (Akbar Formula) 4.29 MAF (Haleem Formula) and Balochistan 0.48 MAF (Akbar Formula) and 0.56 MAF (Haleem Formula). Percentage-wise Punjab gets 47.67%, Sindh 41.55%, NWFP 7.48%, Balochistan 3.20%. In comparison to the Akbar and Haleem formulas (Punjab-Akbar 49.72%, Haleem 51.62%, Sindh-Akbar 41.85%, Haleem 41.46%, NWFP-Akbar 5.51%, Haleem 3.98%, Balochistan-Akbar 2.93%, Haleem 2.94%), Punjab gets LESSER percentages than that awarded by both Commissions earlier, Sindh got LESSER from Haleem but more from Akbar, NWFP and Balochistan get more from both.

There seems to be very divergent opinion about water availability among the experts, something is definitely wrong with the arithmetic of the Ministry of Water and Power. Abdul Rahim Mahsud, long-serving Federal Secretary for Water and Power (over 5 years and 5 governments) has claimed that Rs. 300 billion worth of water was lost over the last 15 years because of lack of an appropriate agreement and now Pakistan would derive benefit of over Rs.30 to 40 billion every year because of the additional availability drawn by the Provinces, statistics plucked out of thin air while skating on thin ice. One may well ask Mr. Mahsud how did he get sleep during the period of his incumbency of five years in which according to his own calculations, Rs. 100 billion flowed out of the GoP treasury and down the river of no return ?

Balochistan seems to be more than satisfied at the outcome, while Sindh and NWFP have gained mostly at the expense of Punjab, which seems to have accepted the Accord in good spirit for the sake of national unity. Lt Gen (Retd) Fazle Haq, IJI MPA and former Governor of NWFP has led the detractors from the NWFP, the greatest beneficiary, claiming that NWFP’s barest minimum demand made in May 1983 when he was Martial Law Governor was 11.85 MAF, the present NWFP Government accepted a decrease of 3.07 MAF (according to his statistics). He laments that out of the total storage capacity of Tarbela, NWFP gets only 0.79 MAF, less than 9%, contending that NWFP should get more, being an upper riparian Province contributing 24 MAF to the total availability of 144 MAF in the Indus Water System. His other objections are with respect to (1) reduction of water from Chashma Right Bank Canal from the 1.32 MAF approved by late Gen Zia to 1.02 MAF (2) embargo placed on developing water resources below 1200 feet elevation and (3) that the existing network of 200,000 tubewells in the Punjab should have been taken into account while apportioning water. The Government of NWFP is claiming that 906,000 acres additionally would be irrigated once all irrigation projects now under process were completed, an increase of 50% over the 1.8 million acres under cultivation now, fetching Rs.24.57 billion per annum by 1996-97 in contrast to the accumulated losses of Rs.26.91 billion by 1996-97 due to lack of decision on water apportionment. Substantial percentage of foreign investment will be required in the Rs.12.8 billion needed to implement the irrigation projects, coupled with additional Rupee-cover grants and credits by the Federal Government. The Provincial Government deserves credit for its success in achieving more than their desired objectives. Gen Fazle Haq destroyed IJI electoral chances in NWFP in the 1988 elections by his stubborn penchant to be guided by individual preferences rather than collective cause, one may well ask him why he failed to get his way in the 8 years he remained absolute dictator in NWFP and also terrorising the Zia Regime at the Centre in accepting all his diktats? Or is he just peeved at being left out in the cold? The fact that the NWFP position was negotiated by ANP Minister for Irrigation, Farid Khan Toofan is the final icing on the cake of general approval within NWFP. Some other politicians have also raised objections but their claims are devoid of reality and based on such inaccurate statistics they do not merit any attention.

In the 1945 Sindh-Punjab water agreement Sindh had received 48.74 MAF, Sindh detractors claim they have thus actually made a mere gain of 0.02 MAF upto 48.76 MAF. The Accord also states that 0.87 MAF be supplied from Sindh’s share rather than be apportioned directly, as per late Gen Zia’s instructions, from the Central Pool. Experts find the 117.35 MAF estimated water available (including utilisable surplus) as too high, their estimation being closer to 105 MAF. As Sindh is geographically the last recipient, it is rightly feared that in case of shortages the others may avail their whole allocated shares while Sindh would suffer. Apportioning 10 MAF for the sea escapages of water below Kotri Barrage in place of the 11 MAF recommended by WAPDA may not be enough. The World Bank approved the Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD) project, but the sanctioned amount is of 1.53 MAF for this. One feels that Sindh has a point about Karachi’s requirements (0.87 MAF) being met from the Central Pool, the shortage of 0.71 MAF for the LBOD project and the balance 1 MAF for sea escapage, totalling 2.58 MAF. Karachi is a national concern being the country’s primary port with expanding urban development, more than 60% of Karachi’s population is from up-country rather than Sindh.

The higher figure of 117.35 MAF has raised fears in the minds of experts about accurate implementation of the Accord. NWFP has got far in excess of its present share on the present ad hoc basis and more than either the Akbar or Haleem Commissions had recommended, at the same time Balochistan has gained substantially on a pro-rata basis. While Sindh may have had a marginal increase, the major cutback has been in the Punjab allocation. Instead of giving credit to Punjab for their apparent sacrifice and silent acceptance of it, critics in Sindh and NWFP have raised an unnecessary hue and cry, one finds their only legitimate concern is in the implementation of the award. To allay such fears it is important that the Indus River Water Management Authority must be constituted forthwith.
In sum total the Federal Government and all the Provinces deserve credit for the Accord. While there are flaws in every agreement, the nation has a document which has been created by Provincial consensus, which can be improved further in the future without resort to contentious acrimony and endless debate while precious water keeps flowing down the river, every MAF lost worth Rs.2 billion according to the claims of Secretary Abdur Rahim Mahsud. There is ambiguity about whether the Accord clears the way for Kalabagh. No one can doubt the benefit of the proposed Kalabagh Dam to Pakistan, however, the emotions in NWFP and Sindh run deep and threatens to be divisive to the integrity of Pakistan. Some decisions cannot be made for economic reasons alone, Kalabagh Dam must become a closed chapter keeping the unity of the country paramount. However, painful economically it may be, some decisions have to be based on real-politik.

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