1998 – Reason to Hope?
Having lived through a traumatic 1997, do we have reason to hope for a better 1998? If we continue to repeat the mistakes of the past year then 1998 will certainly be far worse. If our political leadership learns from their own mistakes as well as those committed by their predecessor PPP coalition and the Caretakers who followed them (albeit for a short period), we certainly have reason to hope. One can live on the fountain of hope, one cannot survive on hope alone. There has to be positive activism with a constant check kept both on the style and content of governance that will feed our hopes and aspirations. Given parliamentary brute majority, PML candidate Justice (Retd) Rafiq Tarar was duly elected and sworn in as President. The Courts have still to pass judgment on his alleged contempt of court. One does not see him evading disqualification, condoning his remarks may set an unhealthy precedent for the judiciary future. The PM will be far better off if the President survives only shortly otherwise he will remain a focus of controversial attention that will distract the functioning of the government to alleviate the economic sufferings of the people of Pakistan. If Justice Tarar survives as President, Pakistan will be hard put to survive Tararism.
The country desperately needs macro and micro reforms across the broad spectrum of the whole structure in Pakistan. The macro reforms must follow a comprehensive national census, the most important being, viz (1) local bodies elections (2) majority vote, run-off elections (3) proportional representation and women participation (4) direct elections (5) dovetailing education with population planning (6) smaller government (7) reducing and decentralization taxation (8) direct linkage between taxation and spending and (9) accountability/justice at grassroots level. With respect to micro-reforms, the most important are viz (1) restructuring the police station and the police (2) bringing private sector participation in all the service sectors and (3) private sector monitoring of all government functions. A myriad number of other reforms are needed but these must take precedence.
Higher taxes are counter-productive because (1) they do not fill the government coffers but the pockets of bureaucrats since those being taxed at such a high scale tend to pay the revenue collectors instead and (2) whether such high taxes are paid or not, business and industry computation adds to prices down the line. Let us reduce customs duties to a flat slab of 15% for everything except those exempted from duty altogether. For parts and spares there should be no duty at all, this will encourage foreign investors to use Pakistan as a manufacturing base with the cheap labour available. At the moment Pakistan’s official import bill is about US$ 10 billion while unofficially almost another US$ 20 billion worth of commodities goes through Karachi and other “unofficial ports” of Pakistan to Afghanistan, India and the CIS countries. Almost all these goods come through Dubai and the computed cost from the time the goods leave Dubai for various destinations is an average of about US$ 45 for every US$ 100 for TV sets, VCRs, Air-conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, etc. Of the US$ 45, US$ 15 stays in Dubai for handling/services of various kind, US$ 15 is spent on the sea trip to Pakistan’s/Iran’s coast including under-the-table payment to various official agencies and US$ 15 approximately for transit from the coast to its destination. By keeping an official import duty slab of 15% and adding US$ 15 for every US$ 100 for onward transit to destination, Karachi would have a competitive edge of US$ 15 in every US$ 100 over Dubai. Now all these are approximate calculations but even a cursory estimate will show that Pakistan will be able to earn more revenues than it does today, more important the official exchequer will earn a lot more by providing services in Pakistan instead of smuggling. This will have a force-multiplier effect on the economy that will in turn snowball revenues. There may be an initial dampening effect on our industry but we cannot continue to protect inefficient and uneconomical units at the cost of the nation. Enough revenues will be generated to revamp the entire socio-economic infrastructure including the utilities and related services. Guess who will oppose it? Only those who are making the most money out of this impossible situation and stand to lose their windfall illegal gains!
Power must be given back to the people at the grassroots level by holding Local Bodies elections. In order to make the Local Bodies truly representative these must be held on slate basis i.e the first ten candidates in order of voting priority must be elected with the one commanding the most votes to be the Chairperson. This would ensure that almost everybody in a constituency has a voice on the Body, very necessary to encourage community participation in government. All candidates for higher bodies must be a member of the Local Bodies at the lowest tier so that one can have a strong foundation for the candidate’s credibility at the grassroots level. All posts must be directly elected as indirect vote is open to manipulation. For the Provincial Assemblies (PA) and the National Assembly (NA), there must be a run-off election if any candidate fails to get a majority of the votes cast, ensuring that candidates pay attention to the whole electorate instead of a favourite significant minority. To ensure that all parties which have participated and have got at least 1% of the vote have one seat in Parliament, 100 seats must be added at the NA level and commensurately at the PA level. This Proportional Representation (PR) must cater for 80% women and 20% minority, obligatory for all parties having more than 5% of the votes cast. The present separate electorate for minorities is a sick joke and must be done away with. In this manner we will bring women and minorities into parliament, care taken to ensure that those appointed on PR basis must have been elected at the grassroots level in the Local Bodies election. Most of the powers must be exercised by the Local Bodies or next higher tier, bureaucrats must function only as advisors and auditors, making government decentralized and smaller. By decentralizing and reducing taxation, more taxes will be collected because the local elected representatives will correctly assess the tax paying potential. A direct linkage between taxation and spending will ensure that at least a part of the citizen’s hard earned money is directly being utilized for his benefit. Last but not the least, we must cater for population planning, depending upon inter-acting with education in convincing our masses that smaller families will mean that demand does not exceed supply.
The Local Thana being a den of evil is shunned by most of the citizens as a profound place of fear and petty tyranny. No self-respecting male or female would like to visit this place unless we make it an oasis of peace. To increase efficiency we must have an Operations Division and a Human Resources Division with a magistrate available around the clock. Representatives of the Local Bodies must sit in the Thana premises to act as adjudicators of problems of the community so that the police role is mainly confined to crime prevention and detection, their gross interference for their own monetary benefit in the lives of citizens being reduced. A strong linkage between the elected representatives and the police station is a must rather than the traditional line-up with the bureaucracy. For providing services in local communities, the government organization must be limited to a skeleton controlling section and contracts awarded to the private sector e.g. water and sewerage, medical services, education, road maintenance, electricity, etc. This will bring in competitive efficiency. Similarly for accountability we must induct the private sector to target illegal wealth on a systematic basis, giving them a fair percentage as adequate reward for the amounts they recover.
There is constant talk of changing the system, what one really needs are simple changes within the system. While there may certainly be practical difficulties in implementing reforms through the broad spectrum, pragmatic changes are needed to change the destiny of the country. With a compliant Presidency and a supportive judiciary, Mian Nawaz Sharif has an overwhelming majority in Parliament and complete command of the executive (except maybe in Sindh where the two bureaucratic brothers are holding Liaquat Jatoi hostage in the CM’s House). With the country thus in his grasp, Mian Sahib has to perform, he has no excuses left to the contrary. If he is really sincere then he will use all his tremendous powers for the good of the country, not engage it in an exercise of overkill in trying to further consolidate his powers. If he is really sincere and the motivation is credible then there is certainly reason for hope but if it is not, a hundred Tarars will not be able to stop the induction of a national government. In 1998 there is thus reason for hope either way.
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