Trade with India
An intense debate is going on within Pakistan, orchestrated mainly by government and trade circles about conferring the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India in reciprocation in the implementing of the new World Trade Organisation (WTO) Accord which has replaced GATT. Pakistan reached an Accord last December (1995) with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Trade Agreement (SAPTA) identifying 226 items for preferential treatment in import trade between the member countries. Customs notification giving India preference in 106 items and Pakistan in 35 items have been issued. Along with business colleagues throughout the country, the Federal Commerce Minister, Choudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, is campaigning for full scale trade with India, the commercial-minded see only pots of gold at the end of this rainbow in utter disregard of any other considerations.
Pakistan Steel is presently importing iron ore from Goa and the emergency import of 200000 MT sugar by TCP is likely to be repeated. The greatest advocate of a strong two-way trade with India is the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) whose members look with some anticipation at the cheap machinery in place of the expensive machinery presently being obtained from western sources. It is believed that all the five committees sanctioned by the Government of Pakistan (GoP) to examine the opening of full scale trade with India have recommended an early resumption of such trade.
The pro-India trade lobby consists primarily of (1) the present Bhutto regime as symbolised by its commercial pointman, the Federal Commerce Minister (2) leading businessmen in the country who see commercial gains for themselves in opening up full-scale trade (3) some economic columnists who have theoretically examined the positive aspects of trade with India (4) the five expert committees, the composition of which seems to be generally confidential and (5) the Foreign Office led by Sardar Assef Ali, ignoring the advice of the Pakistani Ambassador in India, Mr. Riaz Khokhar. The freight factor cannot be ignored, the land route particularly would make transit time much faster and reduce costs by multiple numbers. Western analysts add that free trade between neighbouring enemies is seen as an important milestone in “confidence-building” measures.
The anti-India trade lobby is also primarily based among the industrialists who will be affected by the arrival of cheaper Indian goods and machinery in Pakistan as their counterpart items would be relatively expensive. By reducing the tariffs at the behest of IMF, the government of Ms Benazir has pressurised our industry into near extinction. While protectionism has its own drawbacks, most notably the penchant of our industrialists not to make competitive products, many of the smaller industries do need protection. Since most of the bigger industries are either very influential or well-established, whatever protection is accorded is focussed on them and thus the small industrialists in Pakistan face total elimination. This may result in wholesale economic disruption because of drastic loss of jobs, etc with their own socio-economic impact on the nation. A whole range of Indian consumer goods like soaps, detergents, toothpaste, perfumes, spices, etc will become cheaper in Pakistan. Good news for the average consumer, but at terrible cost to the nation, both in precious foreign exchange and the closing down of a whole range of industries.
A full-fledged campaign has been started by the pro-India lobby about “separating” economic and political issues i.e. their contention is that the policy of coming to some settlement on the Kashmir issue should give way to the same pragmatic method of inter-action employed by the west between former and present enemies. Moreover, the pro-India lobbyists hold that since Pakistan would only trade with India in items it found profitable, there would be no danger of India overwhelming us with their cheaper goods and machinery. Another fait accompli seems being prepared for the Pakistani people to swallow. Nobody cares to mention the danger of the Indians surreptitiously subsidising their goods so as to make them even cheaper, to making our masses completely dependent on their products. Nobody fights a war today on any battlefield, economic subversion is today’s substitute for all-out war. Furthermore by giving their factories business, we will in effect be subsidising their war effort against us.
In Siachen, the highest (and perhaps the coldest) battlefield in the world, no quarter is asked or given. Indians have regularly shot down or damaged our unarmed helicopters on logistics mission to supply high altitude posts. This is not a war or battleground of our choosing, this territory belongs to Pakistan and remained so till the early 80s when the Indians started to encroach. Despite the best clothing and equipment that the Army can ill-afford, Pakistani troops regularly die because of any number of reasons in the freezing sub-zero temperatures or accidents induced by the extreme weather, these include landslides, helicopter crashes, etc. Periodically soldiers die or are maimed because of bullets and shells sent in their direction with intent to kill. This ammunition is made indigenously in Indian factories similar to those producing consumer products. Some Pakistani father, son, nephew, uncle, etc regularly dies because of such adverse Indian attention. What is the reactions of the affected families as to the sacrifice of their kith and kin while our convivial businessmen and government officials wine and dine their Indian counterparts at lunches and receptions in pursuance of their crass commercial interests.
Along the Cease-Fire Line (CFL) in Kashmir dividing Azad Kashmir and Indian-Occupied Kashmir an entire community (e.g. Leepa Valley) of several tens of thousands remain periodically without supply of food and essentials because Indians regularly interdict the logistics route with armed action from vantage points. Indian shelling from across the border regularly claimed the lives of innocent Kashmir civilians all along the CFL. Landmines have been strewn very indiscriminately but particularly covering possible crossing points, heavy rains regularly wash them up in Azad Kashmir, anyone straying from defined paths risks becoming a victim of these deadly mines. What do we tell the thousands of Pakistani troops strung along the CFL at various heights in forbidding conditions? The perception of our pro-Indian trade lobbyists fraternizing with their Indian colleagues in “confidence-building measures” may not be conducive to good morale. They may well ask, what in the name of God are we doing here?
Throughout the 80s Indian Research and Analytical Wing (RAW) has been targeting Pakistan’s major urban cities with death and destruction. Is it a coincidence that the opposite to the acronym RAW is WAR? Mainly through Al-Zulfiqar, Jeeay Sindh and other militant terrorist organisations and later through some of MQM’s militant cohorts gone astray, the port city of Karachi, Pakistan’s only economic lifeline, has been targeted for the spread of anarchy. It was only when the Indian Consulate General in Karachi was closed down that the terrorism was brought under some control but the vestiges of the Indian logistics effort in their support remain. Why this dual policy of blaming India for terrorism and in the same breath give them MFN status?
Kashmir remains a burning issue between Pakistan and India. Since 1990, many tens of thousands of Kashmiris have been killed by Indian Occupation troops, many more have been injured and/or incarcerated in brutal Indian prison camps. The horrific slaughter goes on. Pakistan has already rendered Kashmiri Mujahideen a near fatal blow by the one act of handing over lists of Sikh militants to Rajiv Gandhi’s Government in India. That list permitted KPS Gill, the Inspector General of Police in Indian Punjab, to target and destroy the Khalistan movement, that in turn meant that the logistics supply of arms and ammunition to the Kashmiris in the valley was severely curtailed. The Indians got an opportunity to divide and rule by creating their own “Mujahideen” to counter the genuine freedom fighters and blacken their reputations by “creating” various incidents, including that of western and media hostages. While the Kashmiri Mujahideen are fighting and dying in Kashmir, what signal will Pakistan send them by having full-scale trade with India? We cannot have dual-track objectives, there must be some maintenance of commitment in our lives. The unfortunate decision to play as a combined cricket team in Sri Lanka before the Cricket World Cup sent wrong signals all over the world which Indian propaganda machine used to good advantage. If Pakistanis and Indians can play as one team in harmony, what is the problem over Kashmir except one of Pakistan ego, one that is confined to a few militarists? With blood flowing in the valleys and mountains of Kashmir, no one in his right mind should think of compromising their sacrifice on the altar of greed.
The Chechnyan example should shame us into some balance in our behaviour. They have selected their aim, freedom from Russia, and are committed enough to shed their blood for it without being waylaid by other considerations. Can we imagine the Chechnyans of Grozny having commercial or social contacts with the Russians while engaged in a war of attrition for their survival? The dropping of the Kashmir issue from the Security Council is being seen as a deliberate neglect by the Ms Benazir Government so as to coerce the Pakistani citizens to accept the fait accompli of Kashmir as a non-issue, that is the price we have to pay for Nawabzada Nasrullah and his hookah (and his BMW). Trade with India would tantamount to a complete betrayal of the “poor idiots” in the Valley risking life and limb while we engage in furthering the commercial interests of those whom they are fighting. There can be no trade, or little of it, while the Kashmir question remains alive. Instead of glib rhetoric and evasive answers, let us clearly define our commitment and stick with it despite the dubious financial rewards on offer.
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