The Wages of Truth
Perception, image and reality
Hardly 90 days in the saddle, the Nawaz Sharif government has an image problem. Given the mandate it received in the Feb 3 elections (magnified in its extent by the drastic reduction in PPP votes) and a solid record of governance since, why is the public perception about its performance so different from reality?
Let’s take gains first! In the economic field, the rot set in by the Benazir regime was contained to an extent by Shahid Javed Burki, this revival has continued and we are certainly far better off under Sharif’s economic Czar Senator Sartaj Aziz then what we were six months ago when our only movement was downhill into an economic abyss. However, we are still very much in the woods, we have had to (and will have to) borrow heavily outside the system to meet obligations of instalment and mark-up due not so far in the future. To revive the economy we have had a drastic and courageous reduction of taxes across the board and a genuine dialogue has been opened up with the country’s entrepreneurs leading to a dynamic economic package of incentives. However, an effective mechanism to improve revenue collection has not yet been defined, in its absence the deep hole we are in may become deeper. This revivalist policy has been extended to farmers who have seen the support prices of their produce taken to a new high providing for more than a fair reward for their labour. On the accountability front there is movement to get at bureaucrats though most of the names appearing on the lists appearing so far mean that the process is yet not focussed giving rise to speculation whether the accountability ongoing exercise is really “kosher” or meant to target only a selected few whose heads had to roll because of their known proximity to the Benazir-Zardari duo. The National Assembly and the Senate are really engaged in the process of legislative business which is their prime raison d’etre, obviating the necessity of the government ruling through the decree of Presidential Ordinances as was the usual wont of the Benazir regime. There is only a hint (at least as yet) of corruption in the ruling circle, a sea-change from the all-encompassing environment of corruption that prevailed for all of last 3 years. One cannot say the same for nepotism which continues unabated though at a much lower pace and with lesser fanfare. In most of the government, semi-government and public sector corporations there seems to be an air of seriousness of purpose rather than the laissez-faire attitude of anything goes that had been persisting for some time in the absence of focussed management and administration. Above all there is a recognition that the rule of law prevails and while the law of the jungle may still persist it is not so much manifest as it was before. In sum there is the return of governance in the body politic of the nation instead of the exercise of arbitrary authority on whimsical grounds if not motivated ones.
Perception, image and reality
Hardly 90 days in the saddle, the Nawaz Sharif government has an image problem. Given the mandate it received in the Feb 3 elections (magnified in its extent by the drastic reduction in PPP votes) and a solid record of governance since, why is the public perception about its performance so different from reality?
Civilian coup d’etat!
The PM dropped a quiet bombshell at the fag end of his speech on TV and Radio on March 31, 1997, ostensibly in support of the economic package announced by the Federal Finance Minister earlier in the week. He had decided, in keeping with the wishes of the electorate, to revise the controversial clauses of the Eighth Amendment, in particular Article 58(2)b which gave the President powers to remove the PM for any number of reasons. Since 1988, three different Presidents have used this sword four times, three successfully. The Supreme Court overturned President Ghulam Ishaq’s adventure against Mian Nawaz Sharif, so technically he has never been a dismissed PM. His subsequent resignation was the result of a well planned conspiracy that emasculated the ability of the Federal Government to function. Faced with a situation in which would have set a precedent for the disintegration of the Federal structure, Mian Nawaz Sharif opted to go for fresh elections, little realising that while he had managed to knock out one group of conspirators led by President Ishaq (and including the Chief Minister of NWFP, Punjab and Sindh), another group led jointly by the then Chief of General Staff (CGS) and the then DG ISI had more or less the same agenda for his ouster, more dangerously they had the capability to stage-manage a favourable electoral end-result for their Collaborator-in-Chief Ms Benazir Bhutto.
The indispensable man
The Pakistan Muslim League (PML) on March 20, 1996 nominated Senator Waseem Sajjad, to continue as the Chairman of the Senate. Since the President and the PM are both from the Punjab one would expect more sensitivity to the fact of giving the smaller Provinces needed balance in the upper reaches of hierarchy. Ilahi Baksh Soomro provides this for Sindh as Speaker of the National Assembly. While Balochistan has been somewhat accommodated with the election of the Deputy Chairman Senate, NWFP does not have any representation in the upper reaches of governance. In contrast, Senator Sartaj Aziz, who one would surmise is the most qualified candidate from the PML side, has once again been “superseded” in the “larger interests” of the country and the Party. Others may not articulate contrary opinion out of discretion (in fact this analysis, coming from one who is privileged to be his friend may embarrass him), the fact remains that the choosing of Waseem Sajjad over Sartaj Aziz is grossly unfair to the man, to the PML as a Party and to the country. Senate Chairman Waseem Sajjad may be a fine, upstanding man, the sum total of his services to the Party, especially when he was Acting President in 1993 and he let the elections be manipulated under his very nose, is zero. Can anyone recall anything that he has gone out of his way to do for anyone?
A time to fight and a time to unite
The signing of the Afghan Accord represents the first step in ending the untold miseries and the barely bearable hardships associated with largest movement of human population within a small geographical span. Hounded by helicopter gunships, more than 3 million unfortunate Muslims, men, women and children, voted with their feet their profound antipathy to the Godless Society being thrust upon them through the barrels of Kalashnikovs and the gun-sights of T-62 tanks, electing the rough and meagre comforts of refugee camps in Pakistan and Iran. History will record with admiration the hospitality and patient civility of the people of Pakistan, living not only adjacent to the areas of conflict but also along the arterial lifeline of the roads from Karachi to the Afghan borders. Mr. Gorbachev has bitten the bitter bullet of withdrawal and other than acknowledging his sagacity, one should also accept that it was a brave act of a man with a back to watch because the psychological defeat inflicted on the Russians by their pullout will not go well with the Soviet civil and military hierarchy who will get him, sooner or later. Incidentally, this also applies to clandestine adventures against Pakistan, rather sooner than later.
The internal state of the Federation
The easy part for Mian Nawaz Sharif was to win the elections hands down after almost three years out in the political cold. Among lessons learnt, the first must be that “pragmatism” does pay, the second must be that “naivete” does not. In the order of priorities the economy has pride of place. The good news is that the Pakistan Muslim League (PML), it being time we dropped the “N” symbol, has a full spread in all the Provinces, a strong base in two major Provinces and a moderately useful one in the other two. Even better was the fact that though there was a tilt for regional parties, it was nowhere near a majority. Whenever there is unfair sharing of an already inadequate economic pie, regional tendencies tend to surface. Instead of shoving issues under the carpet they must be addressed on a national basis in order to adequately satisfy all the partners in the federation, economic disparities and perceived discrimination have had unfortunate consequences for this nation before.
The first and foremost task is to put together an effective economic team led by an experienced person having an inherent command of an overwhelming bureaucratic machine engaged in choking the economy instead of running it. “Kitchen Cabinet” insiders may prefer someone amenable to their beck and call, if that should happen, Mian Sahib would have lost the battle for economic Pakistan before it even begins. The “Asif Zardari Syndrome” would come back with a vengeance with a change in name and style only. The chosen Economic Czar has to ensure that along with reforms, accountability is a dire necessity to rid this country of very real demons. Institutions that have been destroyed have to be restored and rejuvenated. Instead of depending upon the FIA, the exorcism must be put in the hands of a focussed team of professionals capable and motivated.
An overwhelming mandate
Mian Nawaz Sharif has been asking the people of Pakistan for a clear mandate, what he got was a tidal wave, a clean sweep that even his most ardent PML (N) supporter could never have dreamed about. The PPP got such a drubbing at the electoral hustings, particularly in the Punjab and the NWFP, that it has put the entire future of this once proud entity as a national party. What late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto proposed as a new and enduring concept for the nation in 1967 in the form of a left-of-centre political party devoted to lofty socialist ideals, his daughter and son-in-law have contrived to dispose of three decades later in a purely capitalistic welter of greed, deceit and scornful arrogance that brooks no criticism and accepts no defeat with grace. Ms Benazir is on record that she would not accept the results if she did not win, a screwed up logic that only a Bhutto could devise. Post her TV performance in Election Hour after the Supreme Court of Pakistan verdict, did she honestly expect her disheartened and demoralized supporters to come out and vote for her? The PML (N) has got almost a million more votes than in 1993, on the other hand more than two million PPP voters either deserted the Party or simply stayed at home, voting with their feet for a leader who has begun to believe her own falsehoods and misrepresentations. In 1993 there were 50.38 million registered voters and 20.29 million voted ie. 40.28%. PML (N) got 7.98 million votes (39.32%) while PPP got 7.57 million (ie. 37%). Despite the PML (N) majority in votes, PPP made the government in the Centre. In 1996 the registered voters are now about 56 million and actual votes cast is expected to be 20 million ie. about 36%. Part of the reason for the low turnout is that while PML (N) votes went up about a million to about 9 million ie. 45%, PPP voters stayed away in droves or deserted to (also-ran) Tehrik-i-Insaaf and is projected to drop by almost 2 million total around 5.5 million votes ie. 27.5%, a fall of over 12%.
The 21st century man?
All the opinion polls clearly indicate that Mian Nawaz Sharif and his PML (N) is heading for a clear victory. Of the 195 NA seats being contested today (other than the 8 FATA, 10 Minority seats and some postponed because of the death of candidates), the PATHFINDER POLL taken before the Supreme Court (SC) decision on Jan 29, 1997 indicated that PML (N) would get 88 NA seats and ANP 6 i.e. a total of 94 or slightly less than half. However, in this total there were at least 9 seats which were closely contested but were all given to PPP in the POLL on the premise that it is better to error on the side of caution. After the stinging rebuke to the last PPP government rendered by the learned judges of the SC in their verdict for dissolution, it is an even bet that most of the marginal races too close to call will now go to PML (N). If there was any doubt about the outcome, the relaxed but forceful performance of the PML (N) leader in Election Hour on Pakistan TV was a sheer contrast to the defiant but evasive Ms Benazir who excelled in remaining scornful and sarcastic of her opponents as is her wont. With a plethora of conspiracy theories to bank on instead of explanations (or even apologies) for her conduct, she expects the broad mass of the intelligentsia and the public to be taken in by her act of innocence. The lady insults their intelligence, the people may be fooled by her act some of the time but not all the time. Unfortunately for those of her partymen locked in close electoral races, her TV performance was the final nail in their political coffin, at least for the foreseeable future. A combination of the factors aforementioned should bring the Mian Nawaz Sharif tally up by another 6, bringing the PML (N) total along with ANP to 100, clearly more than 50% of the NA seats being contested i.e. a simple majority without counting the FATA, Minorities and Independents (at least 18 of them expected to win) most of whom traditionally opt to join the winning team. PML (N) will not need the crutch of a coalition in the Centre as they should have a comfortable simple majority, enough to make a stable and secure government not subject to intermittent political blackmail as Benazir was by her various uncles, Nawabzadas and Maulanas.
D Minus 5 Countdown or meltdown?
The third and final PATHFINDER POLL (16-25 Jan 97) ascertained the preference of the electorate in 75 cities and towns on a much more comprehensive basis, including most of the rural areas not fully covered in the two earlier polls confined to only 30 cities and towns. Two vital queries had been added, viz (1) whether elections or accountability first? and (2) the voter preference for candidates in different constituencies? In Punjab, Sindh and NWFP a majority did want accountability first but overall a slight majority (52%) of the populace favoured elections first, mainly because in the urban areas of Sindh, mostly the deprived MQM, wanted elections first in overwhelming numbers. The translation of voter preference to seat acquisition by political parties remains a somewhat inexact science in Pakistan, particularly because of the “first past the post” system. Imran Khan’s Tehrik-i-Insaf (TI) displays nationwide support of almost 16%, averaging about the same in all the Provinces, but has only 3 seats projected in the National Assembly (NA) to show for it.
In the NA seat for the Islamabad Capital Territory, Benazir’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) is ahead at 38% to Mian Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML (N)) at 32% with TI a distant third at 22%. The PPP vote has been buoyed by PML (N) turncoat MNA, Haji Nawaz Khokhar’s vote bank going to PPP as well as the fact that PPP candidate Nayyar Bukhari has always been a strong candidate even in previous NA elections. However, there are indications that Khokhar’s supporters may not toe his line and will still vote PML (N).
People are willing to march with Nawaz
Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif addressed the nation on TV and radio on February 23, 1997. The speech was short on rhetoric and long in substance, it laid the ground-work for a comprehensive plan to take Pakistan into the 21st century. Investor confidence is an abstract quality built up on public perception, what the PM said was well received by the anxious masses. Unlike Benazir Bhutto, whose main focus at present is to rant and rave about horses, the people of Pakistan had the good sense to give an overwhelming mandate to Mian Sahib.
The PM outlined a number of pragmatic steps among them, viz (1) guaranteed protection for foreign investment, (2) private detective agencies allowed, (3) ban on extravagant spending on marriages, (4) no concessional plots, (5) no more duty-free cars for VIPs, (6) Sunday to be weekly holiday, (7) restriction of use of Government transport, (8) all police guards withdrawn, (9) National Health Scheme for the poor, (10) no flag car except VVIP, (11) submission of assets by government employees and confiscation of undeclared wealth and (12) Accountability Committees all over the country. In fact there were 28 far-reaching initiatives in total, out of which 16 not mentioned are not any less important. Taken together they herald real change as never seen before in this country.