The Wages of Truth
Arrogance and Corruption
Despite the dire predictions of his many detractors, Pervez Musharraf will be credited by posterity with a number of positive initiatives/actions, a few more than others, viz (1) having called the Indian bluff despite having the whole Indian Armed Forces camped for six months on our borders, remaining calm and cool in not blinking under the most hostile external environment in the history of the nation and (2) carrying out accountability, if not fully at least nearly across the board. Apropos of the President’s comment about nuclear potential giving Pakistan strategic balance with India the main reason for avoiding war, the Indians fell over themselves in calling it as “nuclear blackmail”. There was an embarrassed silence a day later, when the consensus candidate for the Indian Presidency Mr Abdul Kalam, soon after filing his nomination flanked by BJP’s Vajpayee and Congress” Sonia Gandhi, said that the reason why Pakistan and India did not go to war was because of “nuclear detente”. Already proving to be a bit of an unguided missile, how long before this muslim is labeled as an ISI operative?
The military regime’s calm under a flurry of ultimatums and outright threats avoided panic in our own population. My touchstone was the many up-scale farmhouses in Bedian adjacent to the border near Lahore, no one evacuated. Conversely India had built up such a war hysteria that when the Pakistan missiles were test-fired in early May, sheer panic swept through the Indian population at the belated realization that no Indian city was safe from a Pakistan counter-attack. The bulk of foreigners in India voted their confidence in India with their feet, clogging the airports in a rush to exit. Over the past few months, investment into India has dried up. For Pakistan where investment is confined to burgers, shakes, french fries and ice creams, not good for health in any case, it hardly matters. The Indians finally got their sums right, calculating that their commercial losses far outweighed their political and diplomatic profit in browbeating Pakistan and trying to label us a “terrorist State”. Before any sensor could be put on the LOC, Chief Monitor Fernandes surmised that infiltration cross-border had almost ceased! Thank you, George, for providing the comic relief during a period of extreme tension!
Great Aspirations, Missed Opportunities
The present military regime came to power with greater potential in its leadership to do good for the country than its predecessor three martial laws, the professionalism of the hierarchy being more potent than their counterparts in earlier regimes. For the most part the senior officers are sincere and dedicated people, well motivated to do their best for Pakistan. The agenda unfolded by Pervez Musharraf aroused great aspirations among the people of Pakistan, and while much has been accomplished in the way of establishing good governance, the past 24 months has seen many missed opportunities, as the clock winds down to Oct 12, 2002, these will haunt the legacy of this military regime.
The economic record, priority No. 1 is a mixed bag. There is certainly financial stability when compared to the dark days of Oct 1999, yet in the President’s own words, “we are not out of the woods”, unquote. The banking sector is doing well but the initiative for reforms of the nationalized financial institutions was one of Mian Nawaz Sharif’s few achievements, it was he who brought back expatriate Pakistanis like Shaukat Tareen and Zubyr Soomro to run Habib Bank (HBL) and United Bank (UBL) respectively. But even the Sharif regime looked the other way while Allied Bank Limited (ABL) was being looted in broad daylight. And why did State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Ishrat Hussain wait nearly two years before ridding ABL of crooks like I A Usmani and Jawaher Hussain, even now he has left their close henchman Tahir Saeed Effendi in place? And despite their public intentions even the Sharif regime decided reforms was too much of a good thing when they (and their friends) were asked to also return overdue bank loans and pay due taxes, they then started to target their own appointees. As far the present meltdown at NDFC, SBP was quite aware about Asif Saeed’s reputation before approving him as Chairman, so after he had taken NDFC to the cleaners, who allowed National Bank (NBP) and UBL to acquire his services as a highly paid Consultant? Hundreds and thousands of small depositors have been running from pillar to post, mainly pensioners with their life savings, yet we persist in giving protection to a man who is most responsible for their miseries.
Rhetoric Yes, Solutions Also
Some of the potentially crippling problems we are faced with are not of the military regime’s making but having toppled an elected government, albeit with sufficient reason, the buck now stops firmly at their desk. Or at least till they let go the reins of absolute power inherent in any military rule and start down the road to civilianisation (as opposed to democratization, or should we call it civilization). Those without political ambition have no reason to resort to rhetoric but in the absence of any absolute denials from those who matter about the Chief Executive becoming President soon and relieving Tarar from his gilded misery it is safe to assume that those who matter in the military regime want to remain people who matter even after their military regime becomes history. The “Charge of the Light Brigade” crowd (ours not to reason why, ours but to do and die) has done “selection and maintenance of aim” as per Clausewitz principles of war, the elevation of the CE to the top slot. Except for a handful of principal supporting cast (two will supposedly take up the two four-star slots becoming available unless a third slot can be safely invented), the rest will pass into history as all extras do in a movie production. After shedding their uniforms, these khaki-collar workers will face the simmering wrath of civilian bureaucracy who will stoke the approbation of the masses into believing the ridiculous canard that all the khaki-clad made millions while in service. With all their acknowledged good intentions and their professionalism the military regime seems blissfully unaware of the major catastrophe we are heading into. It is almost as if they want to ignore problems seemingly apparent to everyone else. It is said elephants wear dark glasses so that Tarzan may not recognize them but that Tarzan wears dark glasses so that he may not recognize the elephants. The gravest water shortage in the history of the nation, potentially the most serious of a long line of our many serious problems, requires our immediate attention.
Behold a Trojan Horse
As far back as 1989 it was clear Hubco would be an albatross around Pakistan’s neck but we are a glutton for punishment and we persisted with this scam. When eventually confronted, Hubco countered with an extremely effective propaganda campaign, holding the country’s financial liquidity hostage and virtually putting all future investment in Pakistan under jeopardy. In this no-win situation we should be thankful we managed to cut our losses and accept, however unpalatable, Hubco’s terms for surrender. With a Trojan Horse or two as a trump card up their sleeve, Hubco’s investors can be excused for laughing all the way to their private banks. Someone someday will do an exhaustive case study to include those who, viz (1) conceived this monstrosity both in (a) Pakistan and (b) abroad, to include government and non-government functionaries, international financial technocrats, consultants, etc (3) nurtured the project, engineers of all kind, bureaucrats, politicians etc (4) were the investors, Japanese (later replaced by Saudis), British, Singaporean, US, etc (5) built it, mainly construction companies, equipment manufacturers, etc (6) then profited by it, mainly almost all of the aforementioned (7) took part in the cover-up and sustaining of the scam, including WAPDA personnel (8) acted as accessories to a combination of media and diplomatic blackmail designed to force us to swallow the bitter pill and (9) lastly, whose children’s grandchildren will continue paying through their nose for the next millennium, long after Hubco is a pile of rubble and rusted scrap?
Return of the Undertakers
Caretaker PM Moeen Qureshi is on his annual “yatra” to Pakistan. On Friday last he spoke on “Pakistan and its economy in the global context” to a gathering in Karachi organized by “The Reformers”, the brainchild of one of the Caretaker Ministers of 1993, Mr Nisar Memon, former long-term Chief of IBM in Pakistan. This elite audience consisting of businessmen, technocrats, intellectuals, bureaucrats etc was carefully selected to get the maximum mileage from Moeen Qureshi’s thoughts to the Pakistan populace. His message of “doom and gloom” was well articulated, he spoke about the eminent collapse of Pakistan’s economy. Our man who lives in Washington (but will agree to live here either as President or PM) has been saying the same thing for some years now, and the inference is that it was only because of his three months Caretaking in 1993 that Pakistan’s economy has managed to survive this long. Moeen Qureshi pontificated a few “priorities” for the military administration, viz (1) long-term loans from world financial institutions at low interest rates (2) restoring investors confidence (3) law and order situation to be improved (4) administration to be strengthened and (5) a long-term poverty alleviation programme to be structured with help of IMF and World Bank. Well, I have news for Mr Moeen Qureshi, with some adjustment to substance and priority, and with all due respects, isn’t that what the military regime has been trying to do for the past year? And Shaukat Aziz as Finance Minister has done a reasonable job in stabilizing the economy, we may default on our debts but not for any fault of Shaukat. Moreover, the heavens will not fall in case of Pakistan default even though there may be wailing in the corridors of the IMF and the World Bank because of the deviation from their prepared script. As much as I have read history and about economies, one cannot come across a single instance where a nation that can feed itself has collapsed economically. Moreover, any child in Pakistan knows that we spend too much on defence, that same child also knows that even that is not enough (by far) to retain parity with the enormous increases in defence spending that India is presently engaged in. What Moeen Qureshi is asking us to do in sophisticated language is to roll over and play dead. He may be a super-salesman for “signing of the CTBT crowd”, disarming and playing second fiddle to India will take some selling to Pakistanis, especially those who live in Pakistan.
Snakes and Ladders
In keeping with speculation in the media, Javed Jabbar ultimately quit the Federal ladder, resigning also as Advisor to the Chief Executive (CE) on National Affairs. In a surprising move, Shafqat Jamote, the Federal Minister for Food and Agriculture, also departed, albeit for different reasons. Rumours of an internecine battle for media turf had been fanned assiduously by those with motivated interest. One feels Javed Jabbar was not slotted properly, his genius of speaking should still be used by the CE to articulate the government’s viewpoint at the higher levels in world capitals. He would have been more than useful as a Foreign Minister, however since one strongly believes Shaukat Aziz would be much more potent in that role, as an Ambassador-at-Large with the rank of Federal Minister. Javed Jabbar could be a trouble-shooter extraordinary whenever and wherever Pervez Musharraf feels Pakistan’s basic message was not getting across to those who mattered or that Indian propaganda needed to be countered where it mattered. Shafqat Jamote acted rather hastily, one feels he could have exercised greater patience.
The Godfather
Long Island and New York are a long way from Raiwind and Lahore but a recent interview with Mian Mohammad Sharif, the father of former PM Mian Nawaz Sharif, “Abbaji” as he is widely known, shows that Godfathers are alive and well, in any country and in any age they remain the same. Mario Puzo’s fictionalized saga of a prominent mafia family had “olive oil” as the core family business, for the Sharifs it is “steel”. The script of “The Godfather” is eerily familiar, the similarities are uncanny. Vito Corleone and the eldest Sharif, both dominant personalities displaced from their roots, rise from humble origins in the new country to control large, powerful “families” comprising blood relations and close associates. One does not see “Abbaji” going around brandishing a pistol knocking off people in his young age as did the elder Corleone but a notorious faction of Kashmiri origin of Lahore, generally believed to be the muscle of the Sharif family, specialized in physically taking over property, helpless widows being a special target of the “Qabza” group. It may be no mean coincidence that their “Capo” is presently residing in New York, what better safe distance from where to fulminate and conspire than the home of the original Godfather?
Total Commitment Needs Full Participation
Democracy can never be meaningful without full participation of all the peoples within a democratic unit, i.e. constituency. Ways and means have to be found to ensure that most of the population gets involved, at least in the lowest tiers, or what is now commonly called the grassroots level. Among the registered voters in Pakistan there is a 54% men-46% women ratio even though the present population count says the ratio is 48% men-52% women. The number of seats that are taken up by women in every tier of democratic participation is not only negligible, it is almost non-existent. That is a non-starter for democracy. The National Reconstruction Bureau (NRB) has proposed that there may be an equal number of seats upto the District Assembly, one feels it would be almost impossible to find credible women candidates to stand upto the electoral test for several years yet unless we use “force-feed” methods. For the purpose of giving women an equal voice in our democracy one proposes that we use the “running mate” formula not only at the grassroots level but up the tiers right upto the Senate. The formula is simple, if a male candidate stands for election, he will have with him as a running mate a woman, and vice versa if a woman is the candidate she will have a male as the “running mate”. Off course there has to be some pre-qualification for such candidates. Both men and women can compete on equal footing, the “coattail effect” will ensure that both the sexes will have equal number of seats on the Councils or the Assemblies. It has to be accepted that such a system will favour women deliberately so as to obtain equal participation by (and for) them, a must for meaningful democracy.
Democracy means effective governance from the grassroots level to the uppermost tier by representatives of the people elected by the people in a fair and transparent process that is all inclusive, i.e. it tries to accommodate every segment of the population and unify them though the electoral process. This verification will cut through ethnicity, sects, caste, etc. One of the best decisions taken so far is to have elections on a run-off basis i.e. the winning candidate must get 50% or more votes in the first round or there will be a second round between those two who got the maximum votes in the first round to establish the outright winner. Those voting thus have a clear choice, concurrently this breeds homogeneity since a coalition of interests must unite to either (1) elect a candidate in a positive display of their strength or (2) by a negative show of their preference they band together to keep a candidate they do not want out of the electoral process. Run-off elections encourage unity in an indirect method. Self-interest cuts against the ambitions of “special interest groups” who band together with different groups for a common purpose even though their views otherwise may be in divergence. In other words those with interests more common to each other will cause together out of a common cause.
Refining the Devolution Plan
Yugoslavia is a classic example in modern times why we should be very careful when dealing with diverse races within one boundary. While Marshal Tito was alive he kept Yugoslavia going on the strength of his personality and the use of police-state methods. Do we have a Marshal Tito in Pervaiz Musharraf, in fact does Pervaiz Musharraf want to be a Marshal Tito? In democracies neither cult nor authoritarian measures work. The disintegration of Yugoslavia only confirms that devolution of power could probably end up in a fatal miscalculation. Equate Punjab to Serbia in the present feeling of the Provinces towards the Punjab and Yugoslavia becomes a mirror image of our problems except that in Yugoslavia there was also a religious divide and in Pakistan we have a very hostile neighbour. Given that the resemblance of Yugoslavia is uncanny, how can we bring the much needed devolution of power into the body politics of Pakistan?
In the absence of making more Provinces, the only course for us is to have Divisional Governments which will be both economic only and politically feasible entities, almost all the Divisions are capable of generating enough revenues for self-sustenance. Whether we are in an urban or rural area, we are very much a tribal society, divided on ethnic and sectarian lines, a concentrated and united minority could well exercise absolute rule over a fragmented majority. So we have to get a better mix the proposed Assembly i.e. go higher thereon the District. Any plan for devolution must provide autonomy within reasonable parameters and not make it a stepping stone for an unilateral declaration of independence (UDI), Federal and Provincial Governments retaining some controls that will act as a bar against separatist tendencies. How does one exercise the fiat of the Federation by essentially making nearly a 100 or so, the Districts will actually become in all but name if the District Government Plan is implemented in its present form? Would Balochistan be able to control 26 such Districts directly? Or for that matter Punjab 34?
Of, For and By
The people” has been deliberately left out of the headline, in third world countries the people in any case have nothing to do with the type of democracy envisaged by US President Abraham Lincoln in his Gettysburg Address. Producing a detailed concept in only 100 days plus to get government (as we know and experience it) off the backs of the people and into their hands at the grassroots level is a tall order. The Chief Executive’s (CE) announcement on March 23 outlining a framework for a Local Government of the people, for the people and by the people notwithstanding, any radical changes in the system need to be tested for chinks in the armour before being implemented. Conducting a debate with a wide cross-section of the intelligentsia in roadshows throughout the country, Lt. Gen. (Retd) Tanvir Naqvi, Chairman of the National Reconstruction Bureau (NRB), has been soliciting concrete suggestions. An environment of candour permitted the meetings to cover good ground, a number of changes were recommended. Refreshingly the NRB Chief was quite receptive to creative and pragmatic ideas, and not defensive about the NRB’s proposed Local Government structure and working. Some criticism not only bordered on the ridiculous but was without substance, that most of the protest came from retired civil servants was to be expected. Their being less than civil in some cases was uncalled for, smacking of the desperation the bureaucracy must feel at being deprived of the monarchical authority and status they have enjoyed as a virtually untouchable and privileged ruling class for over 50 years.